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5. The United States of America, circa 1950: 50% of global output
5. 美国，1950年前后：占全球经济产出总量的50%
By the end of World War II, the U.S. produced half of the world’s economic output, by some estimates. However, that statistic is a bit misleading. It’s not that America was twice as dominant at its height than other states on this list. After all, America was only briefly this dominant, due mostly to the fact that most of the developed world’s economies had been destroyed by World War II. Yes, America likely became the world’s largest economy in the late 19th century on the strength of its large population, vast natural resources, and entrepreneurial spirit. But its total economic dominance in the middle of the last century was a product of the war.
据某些估算数据显示，第二次世界大战结束时，美国的经济产出已经达到全球总量的一半。不过，这个统计数字有点容易让人误解。这并不是说，美国巅峰时期的经济实力比其他四大经济帝国高出两倍。毕竟，美国登上这一霸主地位为时尚短，而且它的成功在很大程度上是因为，大部分的发达经济体都因第二次世界大战而崩溃。是的，鉴于美国人口众多、自然资源丰富并且富有开拓精神，该国本就有希望在十九世纪后期成为全世界最大的经济体。但在上世纪中叶，美国在经济上占据的霸主地位只是第二次世界大战的产物。
Since that time, America’s relative power has been on the decline, not because of slow growth at home, but because the rest of the world is catching up. But as you can see, this follows a broad historical pattern: economic revolutions occur in one part of the world, and then spread elsewhere. Kings of the economic hill are difficult to unseat, and are usually only overthrown following massive conflicts, or because of some economic revolution elsewhere. Britain gained its status because of the industrial revolution, which enabled it to smash through the growth ceiling that agricultural economies faced. “We may face a similar ceiling for fossil fuel societies,” says Ian Morris, “and if the same historical rhythms keep playing out, then the only way to get through that will be that we also have to revolutionize the way we do things.”
自那时以来，美国的相对实力一直呈现衰落的态势，这并不是因为美国国内经济增长放缓，而是因为世界其他国家正在迎头赶上。但是，如你所见，这遵循的正是一种普遍的历史发展模式：经济革命在世界上的某个地方发生，然后蔓延到其他地方。全球经济霸主的地位很难撼动，通常只有在发生大规模冲突之后，或者由于其他地方发生某种经济革命，才会被推翻。英国之所以赢得了经济帝国的地位，全因工业革命让它能够冲破农业经济所面临的经济发展天花板。伊恩•莫里斯说：“我们现在的矿物燃料社会可能也会面临类似的天花板。而如果历史继续呈现同样的发展节奏，要突破这种经济增长天花板的唯一途径，就只有彻底地改变我们发展经济的模式。
