评论
打印
Moody's has warned it may downgrade China’s sovereign rating, a sign of increasing investor concern over the country’s rising debt and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
穆迪(Moody's)警告称，它可能会调降中国主权债务的评级。这一迹象表明，投资者对中国日益增加的债务负担和不断缩水的外汇储备越来越担忧。
The US rating agency revised its outlook on China from stable to negative, the first major step on the country by a rating agency since Fitch downgraded its rating three years ago, the first cut since 1999.
这家美国评级机构将其对中国政府债券的评级展望由稳定调整为负面，这是自3年前惠誉(Fitch)下调中国主权信用评级（是自1999年以来的首次）以来，信用评级机构对中国采取的首个重大举措。
Moody’s rates China’s government at Aa3, its fourth highest rating. That is in line with Standard & Poor’s double A minus rating, although S&P maintains a stable outlook. Fitch assesses China at A plus, one notch lower than its two peers, also with a stable outlook.
穆迪对中国政府债券的评级为Aa3，这是其第四高评级，与标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)的AA-评级相当，不过标普对中国政府债券评级的展望仍维持在稳定。惠誉对中国的评级为A+，比另两家机构低一档，展望也是稳定。
In addition to rising debt and falling reserves, Moody’s attributed its move to “uncertainty about the authorities’ capacity to implement reforms — given the scale of reform challenges — to address imbalances in the economy”.
除了不断上升的债务水平以及下滑的外汇储备外，穆迪还将此举归因于“鉴于改革面临艰巨挑战，政府为解决经济失衡而实施改革的能力存在不确定性”。
China’s top leaders are trying to steer growth away from heavy industry and debt-fuelled investment towards consumption and services. Recent data indicates mild progress towards rebalancing but analysts warn that policymakers need to accelerate structural reforms to arrest the economic slowdown.
中国最高领导层正努力使经济增长不再依赖重工业和由债务推动的投资，而是依靠消费和服务业。最新数据表明中国的经济再平衡取得了一定进展，但分析师警告称，政策制定者需要加快结构改革以抑制经济放缓。
Recent policy moves, including record bank lending in January and a cut to banks’ required reserve ratio on Monday, suggest policymakers are prioritising short-term stimulus over structural reforms, including efforts to rein in debt.
最近的政策举动——包括1月新增人民币贷款创下纪录以及本周一宣布的下调银行准备金率——表明，政策制定者正把短期刺激置于结构改革（包括努力控制债务水平）之上。
“It is a matter of balance. Reforms could indeed slow growth in the short term. [But] if they were reforms that pointed toward a levelling off of leverage and more efficient allocation of capital, then we would see that as a positive," Marie Diron, senior vice-president for sovereign ratings at Moody’s, said in an interview.
“这是个把握平衡的问题。改革确实有可能在短期内抑制增长。（但）如果改革指向的是去杠杆和提高资本配置效率，那么我们就会视其为正面因素，”穆迪主权风险部高级副总裁玛丽•迪龙(Marie Diron)在接受采访时称。
“There will be significant further fiscal and monetary stimulus to maintain growth at robust levels. If that stimulus then delays reform, then we think it’s a negative signal.”
“未来中国还会推出更多重大财政和货币刺激措施来维持稳健的经济增长。如果这些刺激措施使得改革延后，那么我们便认为这是负面信号。”
