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Ask people who remain positive about America’s long-term economic future about the reasons for their optimism and many will point to three unique selling points of the country: entrepreneurial spirit, world-class educational institutions and the depth of its financial capital markets.
如果问问那些仍然看好美国长期经济前景的人为什么这么乐观，很多人就会指出美国特有的三个优势：创业精神、世界级教育机构及其金融资本市场的深度。
There is no question that US entrepreneurial spirit has set itself apart from both developing and developed countries over many decades. America is the home of Silicon Valley and the companies that lead the world of technological innovation — encapsulated in the highly valuable technology stocks of the Fangs: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The big consumer names of Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Starbucks continue to dominate their markets globally, as do the automotive giants — Ford, General Motors and now Tesla — and industrial and aeronautical behemoths such as General Electric and Boeing.
毫无疑问，好几十年来，不论是和发展中国家还是发达国家相比，美国的创业精神都是出类拔萃的。美国是硅谷的所在地，拥有引领着全球技术创新的众多企业，体现于Fang这样市值极高的科技股：Facebook、亚马逊(Amazon)、Netflix和谷歌(Google)。可口可乐(Coca-Cola)、麦当劳(McDonald’s)和星巴克(Starbucks)这些响当当的消费品牌继续在全球主宰着各自的市场，汽车巨头们也一样——福特(Ford)、通用汽车(General Motors)以及如今的特斯拉(Tesla)——还有像通用电气(General Electric)和波音(Boeing)这样的工业、航空业巨擘。
The country’s educational institutions also retain their pre-eminence in terms of research and development, and as innovators in medicine, technology and telecommunications.
在研发方面，尤其是在医学、技术及电信领域的创新方面，美国的教育机构也保持着首屈一指的地位。
Finally, ?S financial capital markets are the global benchmark for breadth and depth in providing liquidity to established companies and fuelling funding for start-ups.
最后，无论是为成熟企业提供流动资金还是为初创企业融资，美国金融资本市场的广度和深度也都成为全球基准。
But for how much longer can America retain its leadership in these three areas? There are growing signs that its status in each is being challenged.
但美国在这三个领域的领先地位还能维持多久？越来越多的迹象表明，在以上每个领域，美国的地位都面临着挑战。
Take entrepreneurship and business, where its dominance faces competition from the growing power of corporate China. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank now occupy the top two positions of the Forbes Global 2,000, an annual ranking that reflects not just market capitalisation but also sales, profit and assets. In the 2017 list, Chinese corporates hold four places in the top 10 with one from Japan and five from the US.
拿创业和企业来说，日益强大的中国企业给美国的主导地位带来了竞争压力。中国工商银行(ICBC)与中国建设银行(CCB)如今占据着《福布斯》全球2000强(Forbes Global 2,000)榜单的前两名，这一年度排名不仅体现企业的市值，还反映其销售、利润及资产情况。2017年榜单的前10名中，中国企业占了4个位置，另外还有1家日本企业及5家美国企业。
Even more worrying is the long-term decline in entrepreneurship. According to the think-tank New America, the number of new employer-created businesses in the US halved between 1977 and 2010 (from 35 per 10,000 Americans to 17 per 10,000). The share of self-employed Americans dropped by 20 per cent from 1991-2010.
更令人担忧的是创业精神的长期衰退。据智库“新美国”(New America)介绍，从1977年至2010年，美国新雇主创建的企业数量减半（从每1万个美国人创办35家企业，降至每1万个美国人创办17家企业）。从1991年至2010年，美国自雇人士所占比例下降了20%。
More recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest a revival in entrepreneurship from 2010-2015, with a 23 per cent rise in the number of business establishments less than a year old. Crucially, however, those are supporting 1m fewer jobs — only 3m in 2015 compared with more than 4m 20 years ago.
美国劳工统计局(US Bureau of Labor Statistics)近年的数据似乎显示，从2010年至2015年期间，创业有所回温，成立不满一年的企业数量上升了23%。然而，关键问题在于，这些企业提供的就业岗位减少了100万个——2015年仅提供了300万个就业岗位，而在20年前创业产生的就业机会有400多万个。
Meanwhile, in 2016, for the first time in 12 years, the Times Higher Education global rankings for universities showed that the number one slot went outside the US (to the University of Oxford). Furthermore, the survey highlights the surge of Chinese universities, especially in the field of engineering and technology: China now has 35 institutions in the top 100 engineering and tech rankings, up from just seven in 2016.
与此同时，2016年位列“泰晤士报高等教育世界大学排行榜”(Times Higher Education World University Rankings)首位的学府，12年来首次花落美国以外的大学：牛津大学(University of Oxford)。此外，中国的大学也异军突起，特别是在工程技术领域：目前，在全球100所顶级工程技术院校中，有35家中国高校，而2016年只有7家。
The number of foreign students at American higher education institutions has grown to more 1m today. However, there is evidence of a slowing of growth in new applications and enrolments. According to the Institute of Internal Education, the number of new international students enrolling in 2016-17 fell 3 per cent from 2015-16. In the same period, the number of Indians applying for the F1 student visa declined 16 per cent.
如今，在美国高校就读的外国学生已有100多万。然而，新增申请者和入学者的数量都有放缓迹象。美国国际教育协会（Institute of International Education，简称IIE）表示，2016-17学年入学的国际学生人数比上一年下降了3%。与此同时，申请F1学生签证的印度申请者人数下降了16%。
This is worrying because, traditionally, Indians have formed a large proportion of science, technology, engineering and maths (Stem) student ranks. According to the World Economic Forum and the National Center for Educational Statistics respectively, 568,000 Stem graduates, and 1.9m bachelor degrees were awarded in the US in 2015. These numbers, though not precisely like for like, indicate that Stem graduates make up roughly 30 per cent of graduates in the US.
这很令人担忧，因为以往科学、技术、工程与数学(STEM)专业的学生中有很大一部分都来自印度。世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)和美国国家教育统计中心(National Center for Educational Statistics)的数据分别显示，2015年美国有56.8万名STEM专业毕业生，同时有190万人获得学士学位。虽然这些数字严格说来并不可比，但足以显示STEM专业毕业生约占美国大学毕业生总数的30%。
IIE data show 80 per cent of the more than 130,000 Indian students in the US are enrolled in Stem degrees. But many are returning home after graduating, leaving America’s economy without the benefit of the skills and knowledge they have acquired. This is in large part down to the caps on visas and difficulties foreign graduates have in securing a green card.
IIE的数据显示，在美国的逾13万印度学生中，有80%在攻读STEM专业学位。但这些学生有很多在毕业后回国，使美国经济不能受益于他们获得的技能与知识。这在很大程度上归因于签证数量上限以及外国毕业生获得绿卡的难度。
Finally, US stock markets are less expansive than before. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index reached a peak of 7,562 publicly listed US stocks in 1998. As of the end of 2016, there were just over 3,600 left, a drop of more than 50 per cent. This sharp decline in part reflects the growth of companies being taken private and share buy backs, as corporate leadership becomes less confident about the volatility and vagaries of the stock market, and their ability to navigate the increasing myopia of investors.
最后，美国股市在广度上也不及以往了。威尔夏5000全市场指数(Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index)纳入的美国上市股票在1998年达到7562支的峰顶。截至2016年底只剩下3600支，降幅超过50%。这在某种程度上表明，随着企业领导层对股市波动性和反复无常、对他们应对日益短视的投资者的能力变得不那么有信心，越来越多公司走上收归私有和股票回购的道路。
Despite such fundamentally negative shifts, optimists might still argue that the US need not excessively worry about these three trends. After all the US remains, unlike many other countries, largely self-sufficient in terms of access to arable land, potable water, minerals and increasing levels of energy security. But it is becoming patently clear that the factors presented here, if ignored, will cause economic damage over the long term.
即便存在着如此根本性的消极变化，乐观主义者们可能仍认为，美国不必过分担心这三个趋势。毕竟，与其他许多国家不同，美国在可耕地、饮用水、矿产资源等方面基本上是自给自足的，能源安全水平也越来越高。然而，越来越明显的是，如果忽视上述因素，将在长期造成经济损害。
