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Hi, I'm Adriene Hill, this is Crash Course Economics,
嗨，我是埃德因·希尔，这里是经济速成班，
and today we're going to talk about Immigration and how it affects economies.
我们今天将要讲移民以及它是如何影响经济的。
So, that poem on the statue of liberty?
自由女神像的诗写得什么？
The one that reads in part, "Give me your tired, your poor,
它有一部分是“给我你那疲惫、困顿、
your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore."
渴求自由呼吸的芸芸众生，你那挤满海岸的可怜贱民！”
That's some lofty stuff, right? Well, sentiment aside, immigrants are good for the economy.
这些内容很崇高，是吧？嗯，抛开情绪不谈，移民对经济有利。
Before we get into the Economics of Immigration, let's step back and have a quick look at the history.
在讨论移民经济学之前，让我们先快速回顾一下历史。
Homo Sapiens have been moving around the planet for a long, long time.
智人在地球上活动了很长很长一段时间，
Estimates vary, but modern humans started to spread out from Africa between 80,000 and 60,000 years ago,
虽然估测有所不同，但现代人开始从非洲扩散是在8万年到6万年前，
and since then they've been busily migrating all over the globe.
从那以后，他们一直在全球各地忙碌地迁徙。
By 12,000 years ago, we were on all the continents except Antarctica.
到一万两千年前，我们已经散布在除南极洲以外的所有大陆上了。
Because Antarctica is a terrible place to live if you aren't a penguin.
因为南极洲环境恶劣，如果你不是企鹅的话很难生活。
And honestly, even they seem unhappy there.
老实说，企鹅在那儿生活得也不开心。
Today we're going to look at international migration, when people move between countries,
今天，我们将研究在国家之间迁移的国际移民，
rather than internal migration, which refers to people moving around within their home country,
而不是在国内四处活动的国内移民，
because international migration has the most appreciable economic effect.
因为国际移民具有最明显的经济影响。
We're also not going to talk about forced migrations,
我们也不会讨论被迫迁移，
like the Atlantic Slave Trade that kidnapped many million Africans,
比如，从16世纪到19世纪，大西洋奴隶贸易绑架了数百万非洲人
and transported them to the Americas as chattel between the 16th and 19th centuries.
并将他们作为动产运送到美洲。
We're going to focus on voluntary migration
我们将关注自愿迁移，
because people who choose to move internationally are very often seeking economic opportunity.
因为那些选择出国的人通常都在寻找经济机会。
In 1889, a geographer named Georg Ravenstein wrote in his Laws of Migration,
1889年，一位名叫乔治·拉文斯坦的地理学家在他的《移民定律》中写道，
"Bad or oppressive laws, heavy taxation, an unattractive climate,
“恶劣或压迫性的法律、沉重的税收、缺乏吸引力的气候、
uncongenial social surroundings, and even compulsion...
不和谐的社会环境甚至强迫
all have produced and are still producing currents of migration,
都会产生并持续产生迁移流，
but none of these currents can compare in volume with that
但是，在数量上，没有任何一种迁移流
which arises from the desire inherent in most men to 'better' themselves in material respects."
能与大多数人固有的在物质方面“更好”的欲望相比。”
Ravenstein was writing during the Great Atlantic Migration,
拉文斯坦在大西洋大迁徙期间写得该书，
which began in the 1840s as huge numbers of Europeans relocated to the Americas.
这一迁徙从19世纪40年代开始，当时大批欧洲人移居美洲。
Between 1880 and 1910 alone, somewhere in the neighborhood of 17 million Europeans arrived in the United States.
仅在1880年到1910年期间，就有大约1700万欧洲人来到美国。
The 19th century also saw a smaller, but still significant number of Asian immigrants arrive in the US,
在19世纪，抵达美国的亚洲移民数量有所减少，但数量仍然可观。
mostly settling on the West Coast.
他们大多数定居在西海岸。
Many of them came to join in the Gold Rush, working as laborers in the mines.
他们中的许多人加入到了淘金热，在矿山里当劳工。
They also worked in factories and helped build the Transcontinental Railroad.
他们还在工厂工作，帮助修建了横贯大陆铁路。
All this immigration was, in many ways, a result of technological advances.
从许多方面来说，所有这些移民都是技术进步的结果。
Improved transportation like steamships reduced the cost and difficulty of migrating across the Atlantic,
运输方式如轮船的改进降低了人们横渡大西洋的成本和难度，
and the rapidly growing industries of the United States needed workers to keep producing.
而且美国快速发展的工业需要工人来维持生产。
This influx of immigrants, while good for the industrial economy of the US, eventually ran into resistance.
移民的涌入虽然有利于美国的工业经济，但最终还是遇到了阻力。
Beginning in the late 19th century, a series of laws were passed to restrict immigration.
从19世纪末开始，美国通过一系列法律来限制移民。
By the 1930s, European immigration was severely curtailed, and Asian immigration was banned outright.
到20世纪30年代，欧洲移民受到严重限制，亚洲移民被彻底禁止。
Many of these laws remained in effect until the 1960s, when new laws helped precipitate a wave of immigration.
其中许多法律到20世纪60年代仍保持着效力，而当时的新法律帮助催生了一波新移民潮。
And today, immigration's a really big deal.
如今，移民成了一件大事。
Even as we're making this video,
在我们制作这个视频的时候，
immigration is one of the most contentious issues in the 2016 U.S. presidential primaries.
移民问题是2016年美国总统初选中最有争议的问题之一。
The executive, legislative, and judicial branches are in a three way fight about how we handle immigration.
行政、立法和司法部门在处理移民问题上有三种不同的方式。
We're not going to give an up-to-the-minute journalistic report on immigration policy,
我们不会提供关于移民政策的最新新闻报道，
but we can talk about the economic arguments for and against.
但是我们可以讨论赞成和反对移民的经济理由。
First, and let's just get this out of the way,
首先，让我们把这个问题抛开，
the overwhelming majority of economists agree that immigration is a good thing for national economies.
绝大多数经济学家都认为移民对国民经济有利。
Many, many studies indicate that increased immigration is associated with overall increases in GDP and productivity.
许多研究表明，移民的增加与GDP和生产力的整体增长有关。
Opponents of immigration, however, point to some of the costs that can come along with immigration.
然而，反移民人士指出，移民带来一些成本。
They point to data indicating that immigrants with low skills are likely to remain poor,
他们指出，数据表明低技能的移民很可能依然贫穷，
and that some of those economic disadvantages can be passed to their children;
而且有些经济上的不利因素可能传给他们的孩子；
that recent immigrants use a lot of social services;
最新的移民使用大量的社会服务；
that immigration might result in short term drops in wages
移民可能会导致工资短期下降，
and contribute to inequality by shifting money from labor to capital.
并通过将资金从劳动力转移到资本上来加剧不平等。
And the data, it bears some of this out.
数据证实了某些不利情况。
The thing is, though, these arguments don't look at the net effects of immigration.
但问题是，这些观点没有考虑移民的净效应。
Let's go to the Thought Bubble.
我们去看“Thought Bubble”。
Harvard economist George Borjas wrote about a family of economic models he called the Immigration Surplus.
哈佛大学经济学家乔治·博尔哈斯(George Borjas)写了一个他称之为“移民盈余”的经济模型。
Population growth via immigration increases the demand for goods,
移民带来的人口增长会增大商品需求，
which can, in the long run, lead to more hiring and higher wages.
从长远来看，这会导致雇佣更多、工资更高。
This can come at the cost of people who are already working,
移民可能会让已经工作的人们付出代价。
as inexpensive immigrant labor can drive down wages.
因为廉价的移民劳动力可以压低工资。
But most economists point to this as a short-term effect,
但大多数经济学家认为这是一种短期效应，
and that the overall growth in the economy driven by population growth will eventually push wages up.
由人口增长推动的经济整体增长最终将推高工资。
So the benefits of immigration tend to not only outweigh, but to exceed the costs.
因此，移民带来的好处不仅比成本重要，还超过了成本。
Studies indicate this holds true, even in cases of extreme immigration events.
研究表明，即使是在极端的移民事件中，这种说法也成立。
Labor markets quickly adapt to inflows of new workers.
劳动力市场迅速适应新工人的流入。
One study looked at the effects of the Mariel boatlift on the labor market in Miami.
一项研究观察了马里尔偷渡事件对迈阿密劳动力市场的影响。
In 1980, nearly 100,000 Cuban migrants arrived in South Florida, and around 60,000 of them settled in Miami.
1980年，将近10万古巴移民抵达南佛罗里达州，其中大约6万人在迈阿密定居。
Despite this massive influx of labor supply,
尽管劳动力大量涌入，
the study found the Mariel immigration didn't drive down wages of native workers,
但研究发现，马里尔移民并没有导致当地工人的工资下降，
and didn't cause widespread unemployment.
也没有造成大范围的失业。
The immigrants were quickly absorbed into the workforce with negligible effects on other workers.
移民很快就融入了劳动力大军，对其他工人的影响微乎其微。
One of the interesting things about the immigration surplus is that
关于移民盈余的一个有趣事实是
it only accounts for benefits that accrue to citizens who already lived in the country before the immigrants arrived.
它只考虑移民为该国之前的居民带来的好处，
It doesn't take into account the huge economic benefits the immigrants themselves enjoy.
而没有考虑到移民本身所享受的巨大经济利益。
Irish workers who came to the US in the 1870s could double their wages.
19世纪70年代来到美国的爱尔兰工人的工资可以翻一番。
Guatemalans who immigrated to the US in the 1990s, were able to increase their incomes sixfold.
20世纪90年代移居到美国的危地马拉人的收入增加了六倍。
An economist named John Kennan has estimated that if immigration restrictions were eliminated worldwide
经济学家约翰·凯南(John Kennan)估计过，如果全球范围内取消移民限制的话，
the world's labor supply would double, there'd be significant economic growth,
世界的劳动力供给会翻一番，经济会有显著增长，
and that workers from developing countries could see their wages jump from 8,900 dollars to more than 19,000 dollars.
来自发展中国家的工人可以看到他们的工资从8900美元涨到1万9千多美元。
Thanks Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。
Borjas's Immigration Surplus findings do draw a distinction between high and low skill workers.
博尔哈斯的移民盈余发现确实能区分高技能工人和低技能工人。
It notes that the arrival of larger numbers of high skill workers is associated with a larger immigration surplus.
报告指出，大量高技能工人的到来与大量的移民盈余有关。
And the model also indicates that if immigrant flows are too weighted toward unskilled workers,
该模型还表明，如果移民潮过于偏重非技术工人，
the immigrant surplus will be smaller, and the growth that comes along with immigration can be slowed.
移民盈余将会减少，移民带来的增长将会放缓。
But the surplus, in most cases, still exists.
但在大多数情况下，过剩仍然存在。
Encouraging the immigration of high-skill workers has other benefits as well.
鼓励高技能工人移民还有其他好处。
Studies indicate that high-skill immigrants are innovators.
研究表明，高技能移民是创新者。
One such study found that foreign-born entrepreneurs register about 25% of new patents in the US,
其中一项研究发现，外国出生的企业家在美国注册大约25%的新专利，
and another found that a 1998 doubling of the quota for H1-B visas,
另一项研究发现1998年H1-B签证的配额翻了一番，
which enable employers to more easily hire high-skill foreign workers,
这让雇主更容易雇佣高技能的外国工人，
that led to an average 15% revenue increase for companies that participated.
使得参与雇佣的公司收入平均增加了15%。
Doesn't take an Einstein to figure, maybe you want to expand the H1-B Visa program.
不需要爱因斯坦来计算，你或许也想扩大H1-B签证项目。
One subtext to this high-skill versus low-skill conversation here in the United States,
在美国，这种高技能和低技能对话的潜台词，
and it gets to one of the most contentious parts of the immigration debate,
以及移民辩论中最具争议的一部分
is how immigrants actually get or got into the country.
是移民如何进入美国的。
It centers on the differences between immigrants who arrive in the U.S. via official channels,
它的焦点在于通过官方渠道到达美国的移民
and those that enter the country without going through the legal documentation process.
与那些没有经过法律文件程序进入美国的移民的差异。
So, what do we do with 11 million undocumented immigrants who are already here?
那么，我们该如何处理美国的1100万非法移民呢？
Well, in 2014, the federal government deported 369,000 immigrants, 9 times as many as were expelled in 1994.
2014年，联邦政府驱逐了36.9万个移民，是1994年驱逐人数的9倍。
And from an economic standpoint, kicking people out might not make the most sense.
从经济的角度来看，把人赶出去可能不是最合理的。
In fact, a wide range of studies find that extending legal status to undocumented immigrants would be a net positive.
事实上，一系列广泛研究发现，让无证移民合法化绝对有积极意义。
Proponents say that newly documented workers would gain labor protections,
支持者说，新得到证件的工人将受到劳动保护，
and would be free to pursue work that better matches their skill-set.
并且可以自由从事更适合他们技能的工作。
As a result, on average, some economists estimate these workers wages could rise up to 15%.
因此，一些经济学家估计，这些工人的平均工资可能会上涨15%。
And when workers get paid more, they tend to buy more stuff.
当工人薪酬增加时，就倾向于买更多东西。
That increased demand, once again, leads to more production, which leads to more hiring.
这会增加需求，并导致更多的生产，从而带来更多的雇佣。
And that's not just pie in the sky liberal thinking.
这不仅仅是希望渺茫的自由思想。
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office projected in 2007 that
无党派的国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)在2007年预测了这一点，
immigration reform would bring undocumented workers into the tax base,
移民改革将无证工人纳入税基，
and that growth in revenue would offset costs by a ratio of two to one.
而营收的增长将以二比一的比率抵消成本。
Many partisan organizations agree on this point as well.
许多党派组织也同意这一点。
The liberal think tank, Center for American Progress,
自由智库与美国进步中心
estimated that giving undocumented workers legal status could create more than 200,000 additional jobs per year.
估计给予无证工人合法身份可以每年增加20多万个工作岗位。
Grover Norquist, of Americans for Tax Reform, wrote that legalizing undocumented workers would,
美国税务改革协会的葛罗弗·诺奎斯特写道，将无证工人合法化能够
"free millions of those now working to move to
“解放数百万工作人员
where their work is most productive for themselves and the national economy."
让他们能转移到对自己和国家经济都最有成效的工作中去。”
And the conservative Heritage Foundation wrote in 2006 that,
保守的传统基金会在2006年写道，
"Whether low-skilled or high-skilled, immigrants boost national output,
“无论是低技能移民还是高技能移民，他们都能促进国家产出，
enhance specialization, and provide a net economic benefit."
加强专业化，提供净经济效益。”
Let's stop for a minute, and really appreciate the rareness of this situation,
让我们暂停一分钟，欣赏一下这种情况的罕见，
that the Center for American Progress and the Heritage Foundation AGREE on something.
美国进步中心和传统基金会竟在一些问题上达成了一致。
Researchers have modeled the economic effects of different possible policy responses to undocumented immigrants in the U.S.,
研究人员模拟了对美国非法移民的多种可能政策产生的经济影响，
full deportation, full legalization and full legalization with added border control.
它们包括完全驱逐出境、完全合法化与完全合法化外加边境管制。
They found that full deportation would cut GDP by 0.61%
他们发现完全驱逐出境会使GDP减少0.61%，
and full legalization would, on the other hand, INCREASE GDP by 0.53%.
另一方面，完全合法化将使GDP增长0.53%。
Legalization with more border enforcement winds up in the middle increasing GDP by 0.17%
而中间的合法化外加加强边境管制会使GDP增加0.17%。
So, if the debate over immigration were solely about economics, there wouldn't be much of a debate.
因此，如果移民辩论单纯讨论经济的话，没有多少可辩的东西。
But, as we've learned, the world is a complex place.
但是正如我们所知，世界很复杂。
Many immigration opponents argue that expanding immigration is a security risk.
许多移民反对者认为，移民扩大存在一种安全风险。
They argue that relaxed border enforcement can lead to more illegal items, like drugs, being smuggled into the country.
他们认为放松边境执法会导致更多的非法物品走私到美国，比如毒品。
There's also a strong sentiment that people shouldn't be rewarded with citizenship for breaking the law.
还有一种强烈的情绪是，人们不该因为违反法律而得到公民身份的奖励。
But let's go back to the broader community of all immigrants.
但让我们回到更广泛的移民群体身上。
Cliche as it might sound, the US really is a nation of immigrants.
虽然听起来有些陈腐，但美国确实是一个移民国家。
The United States has the world's largest total immigrant population, at 41 million.
美国是世界上移民人口最多的国家，有4100万移民。
And sentiment in the U.S. about immigrants is changing.
美国人对移民的态度正在改变。
A 2015 study from the Pew Research Center found that about half of U.S. adults say immigrants strengthen the economy.
皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)2015年的一项研究发现，约有一半的美国成年人认为移民能增强经济。
Compared to 40% who say they are a burden.
相比之下，40%的美国人认为移民是负担。
Back in 1994, that was reversed. Nearly 2/3rds of the population then saw immigrants as a burden.
回到1994年，情况恰好相反。当时近三分之二的人口将移民视为负担。
Only 30% said they strengthened the country.
只有30%的人说移民加强了美国的实力。
Pew also discovered that young people hold a more positive view of the contributions of immigrants to the country than older generations.
皮尤研究中心还发现，与老一辈人相比，年轻人对于移民对国家的贡献持更为积极的态度。
Which means it's likely, pro-immigrant sentiments gonna keep on growing.
这意味着支持移民的情绪很可能会继续上涨。
Economically, and otherwise.
但从经济上来说，情况相反。
Thanks for watching. See you next week.
感谢您的收看，我们下期见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course Economics,
感谢您收看经济速成班，
which is made with the help of all these nice people, some of whom are immigrants.
它是由这些好心人帮助制作的，他们中有些是移民。
You can help keep Crash Course free for everyone, forever by supporting the show at Patreon.
你可以通过支持Patron上的节目帮助速成班永远免费对所有人开放。
Patreon is a voluntary subscription service
Patreon是个自愿订阅服务的平台，
where you can help make the show with your monthly contribution. And you get rewards!
你可以每月捐助帮助节目制作。你也能得到奖励！
Thanks for watching. Don't forget: sometimes partisan think tanks agree!
感谢您的收看，不要忘了：有时党派智囊团会同意！
