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You're a guy whose company funds these AI programs and invests.
你的公司资助这些人工智能项目和投资。
So why should we trust you to not have a bias and tell us something really useful for the rest of us about the future of work?
所以我们如何相信你不会带着偏见，告诉我们这些很受用的有关未来的工作前景？
Yes, I am. And when you wake up in the morning and you read the newspaper and it says,
是的，我是。当你早晨醒来看到新闻说：
"The robots are coming, they may take all our jobs,"
“机器人即将来临，可能会取代我们所有人的工作，”
as a start-up investor focused on the future of work,
身为一位专注在未来工作的初创企业投资人，
our fund was the first one to say artificial intelligence should be a focus for us.
我们的基金是最先聚焦在人工智能上的。
So I woke up one morning and read that and said, "Oh, my gosh, they're talking about me. That's me who's doing that."
所以我某天醒来看到那则新闻便说：“哦，我的天，他们说的是我。那是我正在做的事。”
And then I thought: wait a minute. If things continue,
然后我想：等等。如果事情继续发展的话，
then maybe not only will the start-ups in which we invest struggle
或许不只我们投资的初创公司会陷入危机，
because there won't be people to have jobs to pay for the things that they make and buy them,
因为就不会有人有工作来付钱买机器人做的东西，
but our economy and society might struggle, too.
我们的经济和社会可能也会岌岌可危。
And look, I should be the guy who sits here and tells you,
而我应该是坐在这里告诉你说：
"Everything is going to be fine. It's all going to work out great.
“一切都不会有问题。所以的问题都会迎刃而解。
Hey, when they introduced the ATM machine, years later, there's more tellers in banks."
嘿，当引进自动柜员机时，几年过后，银行的柜员比以前多。”
It's true. And yet, when I looked at it, I thought,
这是真的。然而，当我看着它，我心想，
"This is going to accelerate. And if it does accelerate, there's a chance the center doesn't hold."
“这会加速发展。一旦它加速发展了，中心可能就无法掌控住。”
But I figured somebody must know the answer to this; there are so many ideas out there.
但我认为有人必定知道这个问题的答案；许多人有很棒的点子。
And I read all the books, and I went to the conferences,
我经常看书，也常去参加会议，
and at one point, we counted more than 100 efforts to study the future of work.
有一次我们数算了，有超过100个有关未来工作的研究。
And it was a frustrating experience,
这个经验让人觉得很挫败，
because I'd hear the same back-and-forth over and over again: "The robots are coming!"
因为我来回一遍又一遍地听到同样的话：“机器人即将来临！”
And then somebody else would say, "Oh, don't worry about that, they've always said that and it turns out OK."
然后，其他人说：“哦，不用担心，他们一直都这么说，结果也都没事。”
Then somebody else would say, "Well, it's really about the meaning of your job, anyway."
然后，另外一个人说，“嗯，其实你工作赋予你的意义才重要。”
And then everybody would shrug and go off and have a drink.
然后每个人就耸耸肩离开喝酒去了。
And it felt like there was this Kabuki theater of this discussion, where nobody was talking to each other.
这些话感觉就像是在歌舞伎剧院里的讨论，每个人各说各话，没有交流。
And many of the people that I knew and worked with in the technology world were not speaking to policy makers;
很多我认识的在科技领域工作的人，他们不与政策制定者对话；
the policy makers were not speaking to them.
政策制定者也不和这些人讨论。
And so we partnered with a nonpartisan think tank NGO called New America to study this issue.
所以我们与名为“新美国”的无党派非政府组织的智库合作，来研究这个议题。
And we brought together a group of people,
我们聚集了一群人，
including an AI czar at a technology company and a video game designer and a heartland conservative
包括一家科技公司的人工智能巨擘，一位电子游戏设计师，一位传统的保守者，
and a Wall Street investor and a socialist magazine editor -- literally, all in the same room;
一位华尔街投资人，和社会主义杂志的编辑--把他们都放在同一个房间里；
it was occasionally awkward -- to try to figure out what is it that will happen here.
偶尔会很尴尬--试图找出未来会如何变化。
The question we asked was simple.
我们要问的问题很简单。
It was: What is the effect of technology on work going to be?
那就是：科技对工作的影响将会是什么？
And we looked out 10 to 20 years, because we wanted to look out far enough that there could be real change,
我们探讨10到20年后的情形，因为我们要看到在够远的未来可能会发生的真正变化，
but soon enough that we weren't talking about teleportation or anything like that.
但很快地我们就不探讨心灵传输或类似的事情。
And we recognized -- and I think every year we're reminded of this in the world
我们知道--我想身处在这世界上每年都会被提醒到，
that predicting what's going to happen is hard.
预测未来之事是很困难的。
So instead of predicting, there are other things you can do.
不去预测未来，你可以做其他事情。
You can try to imagine alternate possible futures, which is what we did.
你可以试着去想象其他可能的未来，这就是我们所做的。
We did a scenario-planning exercise, and we imagined cases where no job is safe.
我们做了一个情景规划练习，我们想象没有一个工作是安全的情况。
We imagined cases where every job is safe. And we imagined every distinct possibility we could.
我们想象每个工作都是安全的情况。我们想象所有不同的可能性。
And the result, which really surprised us, was when you think through those futures and you think what should we do,
结果是，出乎我们的意料之外，当你透彻地思考这些未来，以及你认为我们该怎么做，
the answers about what we should do actually turn out to be the same, no matter what happens.
结果我们应该做什么的答案都是一样的，无论发生了什么。
And the irony of looking out 10 to 20 years into the future is,
讽刺的是展望10到20年后的未来，
you realize that the things we want to act on are actually already happening right now.
你发现我们想要采取的行动其实现在已经在发生了。
The automation is right now, the future is right now.
现在已经在自动化，未来就在眼前。
So what does that mean, and what does that tell us?
那是什么意思，那告诉了我们什么？
If the future is now, what is it that we should be doing, and what should we be thinking about?
如果现在是未来，我们应该做什么，以及我们应该考虑什么呢？
We have to understand the problem first.
首先我们必须了解问题。
And so the data are that as the economy becomes more productive and individual workers become more productive, their wages haven't risen.
数据显示的是，当经济变得更具生产力，每一位工作者变得更有效率，但他们的工资没有上涨。
If you look at the proportion of prime working-age men, in the United States at least,
如果你看一下主要工作男性的比例，至少在美国，
who work now versus in 1960, we have three times as many men not working. And then you hear the stories.
与20世纪60年代工作的人比较，我们有三倍的男人没在工作。然后你会听到他们的故事。
I sat down with a group of Walmart workers and said,
我与一群沃尔玛的员工交谈，我说：
"What do you think about this cashier, this futuristic self-checkout thing?"
你认为这个能让你自助结账的机器如何？
They said, "That's nice, but have you heard about the cash recycler?
他们说：“这很好，但你有听说过现金回收机吗？”
That's a machine that's being installed right now, and is eliminating two jobs at every Walmart right now."
那是现在正在安装中的机器，每一台可以取代两个在沃尔玛卖场工作的人。”
And so we just thought, "Geez. We don't understand the problem."
所以我们只是想，“天呀。我们没有了解到问题。”
And so we looked at the voices that were the ones that were excluded,
所以我们去找那些被排除在外的声音，
which is all of the people affected by this change.
那些人是受到这些变化影响的人。
And we decided to listen to them, sort of "automation and its discontents."
我们决定去听他们的心声，像是“自动化和它所造成的不满。”
And I've spent the last couple of years doing that.
我过去几年都在这么做。
I've been to Flint, Michigan, and Youngstown, Ohio, talking about entrepreneurs,
我去过密歇根州的弗林特和俄亥俄州的扬斯敦，和企业家讨论，
trying to make it work in a very different environment from New York or San Francisco or London or Tokyo.
试图让它在极不同的环境，如纽约、旧金山到伦敦、东京都能够顺利完成。
I've been to prisons twice to talk to inmates about their jobs after they leave.
我去过监狱两次，和囚犯讨论他们离开监狱后的工作。
I've sat down with truck drivers to ask them about the self-driving truck,
我和卡车司机坐下来，问他们对于自动驾驶卡车的看法，
with people who, in addition to their full-time job, care for an aging relative.
我与一些在全职工作外也照顾年老亲人的人谈话。
And when you talk to people, there were two themes that came out loud and clear.
当你与人们谈话后，有两个主题被搬上台面且非常明确。
The first one was that people are less looking for more money or get out of the fear of the robot taking their job,
第一是人们较不追求更多的金钱，或较不害怕机器人取代他们的工作，
and they just want something stable. They want something predictable.
他们只是希望比较稳定的工作。他们想要可预测的东西。
So if you survey people and ask them what they want out of work,
所以，如果你调查询问他们想要在工作得到什么，
for everybody who makes less than 150,000 dollars a year,
每个年薪在15万以下的人，平均来说，
they'll take a more stable and secure income, on average, over earning more money.
他们会接受收入比较稳定和安全的工作，而不是收入更高的工作。
And if you think about the fact that not only for all of the people across the earth who don't earn a living,
如果你考虑一下这个事实：不仅是地球上所有没有在工作的人，
but for those who do, the vast majority earn a different amount from month to month and have an instability,
而是那些在工作的人，绝大多数人每月拿到不同的金额，很不稳定，
all of a sudden you realize, "Wait a minute. We have a real problem on our hands."
你突然意识到，“等一下。我们手上有个真正的问题。”
And the second thing they say, which took us a longer time to understand, is they say they want dignity.
他们说的第二件事，我们花了比较长的时间才理解。那就是说他们要有尊严。
And that concept of self-worth through work emerged again and again and again in our conversations.
而那个通过工作实现自我价值的概念一次又一次地出现在我们的谈话中。
So, I certainly appreciate this answer. But you can't eat dignity, you can't clothe your children with self-esteem.
谢谢你告诉我们这个答案。但你不能靠尊严吃饭，你不能用自尊心买衣服给你的孩子穿。
So, what is that, how do you reconcile -- what does dignity mean, and what is the relationship between dignity and stability?
那么，那是什么，你如何调和--尊严意味着什么，尊严和稳定之间的关系是什么？
You can't eat dignity. You need stability first.
你不能靠尊严吃饭。你首先需要稳定。
And the good news is, many of the conversations that are happening right now are about how we solve that.
好消息是，很多大家在谈论的是关于我们如何解决这个问题。
You know, I'm a proponent of studying guaranteed income, as one example,
你知道，我是研究保证收入的支持者，那是一个例子，
conversations about how health care gets provided and other benefits.
另外也有如有关如何提供医疗保健和其他福利的讨论。
Those conversations are happening, and we're at a time where we must figure that out. It is the crisis of our era.
这些讨论都正在发生，我们正处于必须解决这些问题的关键时刻。这是我们时代的危机。
And my point of view after talking to people is that we may do that, and it still might not be enough.
在和许多人对话后，我的观点是，即使我们那么做，可能还不够。
Because what we need to do from the beginning is understand what is it about work that gives people dignity,
因为我们从一开始就必须了解的是什么是能使人们得到尊严的工作，
so they can live the lives that they want to live.
让他们可以过他们想过的日子。
And so that concept of dignity is ... it's difficult to get your hands around,
所以尊严的概念就是...你很难了解清楚，
because when many people hear it -- especially, to be honest, rich people -- they hear "meaning."
因为当很多人听到它时--特别是，说实话，有钱人--他们听到的是“意义。”
They hear "My work is important to me."
他们听到“我的工作对我很重要。”
And again, if you survey people and you ask them, "How important is it to you that your work be important to you?"
如果你做调查，你问他们，“你的工作对你来说很重要这一点对你有多重要？”
only people who make 150,000 dollars a year or more say that it is important to them that their work be important.
只有年薪在15万美元以上的人说“他们的工作很重要”，这点对他们来说很重要。
Meaning, meaningful?
意思是有意义的？
Just defined as, "Is your work important to you?" Whatever somebody took that to mean.
我们就是定义它为，“你的工作对你很重要吗？”不管大家认为是什么意思。
And yet, of course dignity is essential.
然而，尊严当然是必不可少的。
We talked to truck drivers who said, "I saw my cousin drive, and I got on the open road and it was amazing.
我们和卡车司机谈话，他说：“我曾看我的堂兄弟开卡车，当我也开始开卡车时，觉得真棒。
And I started making more money than people who went to college."
我开始赚比上大学的人更多的钱。”
Then they'd get to the end of their thought and say something like,
然后他们谈到他们最终的想法，说：
"People need their fruits and vegetables in the morning, and I'm the guy who gets it to them."
“人们早上需要吃水果和蔬菜，而我是那个运送蔬菜水果给他们的人。”
We talked to somebody who, in addition to his job, was caring for his aunt. He was making plenty of money.
我们和一位除了做他的正职外，也兼照顾他阿姨的人访谈。他的收入很高。
At one point we just asked, "What is it about caring for your aunt? Can't you just pay somebody to do it?"
有一次我们就问他：“你为什么要照顾你的阿姨？难道你不能花钱请别人去做吗？”
He said, "My aunt doesn't want somebody we pay for. My aunt wants me."
他说：“我的阿姨不要我们请的人。我的阿姨要我。”
So there was this concept there of being needed.
那里有“被需要”这个概念。
If you study the word "dignity," it's fascinating.
如果你研究“尊严”这个词，它很令人着迷。
It's one of the oldest words in the English language, from antiquity.
这是最古老的词之一，来自古代的英语。
And it has two meanings: one is self-worth, and the other is that something is suitable, it's fitting,
它有两个含义：一个是自我价值，另一个是感觉很合适、恰如其分，
meaning that you're part of something greater than yourself,
意思是你属于比自身更伟大事物的一部分，
and it connects to some broader whole. In other words, that you're needed.
而它连接到更宏伟的整体。换句话说，你是被需要的。
So how do you answer this question, this concept that we don't pay teachers,
那你怎么回答这个问题呢？我们付给以下这些人太低的工资：老师、
and we don't pay eldercare workers, and we don't pay people who really care for people and are needed, enough?
老人照护员、真的关心他人的人，而且是被需要的人。
Well, the good news is, people are finally asking the question.
嗯，好消息是，人们终于提出了这个问题。
So as AI investors, we often get phone calls from foundations or CEOs and boardrooms saying, "What do we do about this?"
身为人工智能的投资者，我们经常接到来自基金会或执行长和董事会的电话，说：“我们该怎么做呢？”
And they used to be asking, "What do we do about introducing automation?"
他们以前问的是：“我们该怎么引入自动化呢？”
And now they're asking, "What do we do about self-worth?"
现在他们问：“我们如何处理自我价值？”
And they know that the employees who work for them who have a spouse who cares for somebody,
他们知道他们的员工谁有配偶要照顾某人，
that dignity is essential to their ability to just do their job.
他们知道尊严对于员工能够胜任他们的工作至关重要。
I think there's two kinds of answers: there's the money side of just making your life work.
我想有两种答案：一种是钱的方面，就是工作让你养家糊口。
That's stability. You need to eat.
那就是稳定。你需要能吃饱。
And then you think about our culture more broadly, and you ask: Who do we make into heroes?
然后你将我们的文化想得更广泛，你问：我们让谁成为英雄？
And, you know, what I want is to see the magazine cover that is the person who is the heroic caregiver.
我想要看到的是杂志封面人物呈现的是英雄般的照护工作者。
Or the Netflix series that dramatizes the person who makes all of our other lives work so we can do the things we do.
或在Netflix系列的影片里那个让所有东西都维持正常运作，我们因而可以安居乐业的人。
Let's make heroes out of those people. That's the Netflix show that I would binge.
我们让这些人成为英雄吧。这是会让我为之疯狂的Netflix节目。
And we've had chroniclers of this before -- Studs Terkel, the oral history of the working experience in the United States.
我们以前就有这种编年史家--史都茨·特克尔，他口述了在美国工作经验的历史。
And what we need is the experience of needing one another and being connected to each other.
我们需要的是彼此需要的经验，以及彼此连结的经验。
Maybe that's the answer for how we all fit as a society.
也许这就是我们能在社会相互依存的答案。
And the thought exercise, to me, is: if you were to go back 100 years and have people
对我来说，思考练习是：如果你回到100年前并有人...
my grandparents, great-grandparents, a tailor, worked in a mine
我的祖父母，曾祖父母，一个裁缝，在矿坑工作，
they look at what all of us do for a living and say, "That's not work."
当他们看到我们谋生的方式，会说：“那不能算是工作。”
We sit there and type and talk, and there's no danger of getting hurt.
我们是坐在那里打字和说话，而且没有受伤的危险。
And my guess is that if you were to imagine 100 years from now, we'll still be doing things for each other.
我的猜测是，如果你想象100年后的事，我们还会在为彼此做事。
We'll still need one another. And we just will think of it as work.
我们仍然需要彼此。我们只会将它视为工作。
The entire thing I'm trying to say is that dignity should not just be about having a job.
我想说的全部内容是，尊严不应该只是有一份工作。
Because if you say you need a job to have dignity, which many people say, the second you say that,
因为如果你说你需要一份工作才会有尊严，很多人这么说，当你这么说，
you say to all the parents and all the teachers and all the caregivers that all of a sudden,
你就是在对所有的父母、所有的老师和所有照护者说，突然间，
because they're not being paid for what they're doing, it somehow lacks this essential human quality.
因为他们所做的事情并没有得到相对应的报酬，在某种程度上似乎就缺乏了基本的人本素质。
To me, that's the great puzzle of our time:
对我来说，这是我们时代的大谜题：
Can we figure out how to provide that stability throughout life,
我们如何提供终身稳定的生活，
and then can we figure out how to create an inclusive, not just racially, gender, but multigenerationally inclusive
我们如何能创造一个包容，不仅仅是对种族、性别，还有多世代的包容，
I mean, every different human experience included -- in this way of understanding how we can be needed by one another.
我的意思是，包括各种不同人类经验--以这种方式理解我们如何彼此需要。
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you very much for your participation.
谢谢。谢谢。非常感谢你们的参与。
