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So let me with start with Roy Amara.
我从罗伊·阿玛拉开始讲吧。
Roy's argument is that most new technologies tend to be overestimated in their impact to begin with,
罗伊的观点是最新的技术在一开始，它们的影响往往会被放大，
and then they get underestimated in the long term because we get used to them.
而时间一长它们的作用又会被缩小。
These really are days of miracle and wonder.
这是一个充满奇迹的时代。
You remember that wonderful song by Paul Simon? There were two lines in it.
你们还记得保罗·西门的那首歌吗？里面就有这样两句。
So what was it that was considered miraculous back then?
那么那时候会让人觉得神奇的是什么呢？
Slowing down things -- slow motion -- and the long-distance call.
很慢的东西--慢动作--到远距离通信。
Because, of course, you used to get interrupted by operators who'd tell you, "Long distance calling. Do you want to hang up?"
因为你原本已经习惯了接线员告诉你说：“距离太远无法接通。您还希望继续等待吗？”
And now we think nothing of calling all over the world.
而现在我们觉得给世界上任何一个地方打电话都已经不算什么了。
Well, something similar may be happening with reading and programming life.
阅读和编程以后也可能会这样。
But before I unpack that, let's just talk about telescopes.
但在我揭晓答案之前，我们来聊聊望远镜吧。
Telescopes were overestimated originally in their impact.
望远镜的功用一开始是被高估了的。
This is one of Galileo's early models. People thought it was just going to ruin all religion.
这是伽俐略的简易望远镜的模型之一。人们认为它会毁掉宗教。
So we're not paying that much attention to telescopes.
我们现在对望远镜没怎么上心。
But, of course, telescopes launched 10 years ago, as you just heard, could take this Volkswagen, fly it to the moon,
但你们刚才已经听见了，望远镜是10年前发明的，你可以把这辆大众汽车开上月球去，
and you could see the lights on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
用望远镜你可以看见月球上大众汽车的灯光。
And that's the kind of resolution power that allowed you to see little specks of dust floating around distant suns.
这种清晰度还可以使你看见太阳周围漂浮的灰尘。
Imagine for a second that this was a sun a billion light years away,
想象下这是100万光年意外的太阳，
and you had a little speck of dust that came in front of it.
有一小片灰尘路过它的旁边。
That's what detecting an exoplanet is like.
检测太阳系外行星就是这样的。
And the cool thing is, the telescopes that are now being launched would allow you to see a single candle lit on the moon.
很厉害的一件事是现在的望远镜足以让你看清月亮上的一支蜡烛。
And if you separated it by one plate, you could see two candles separately at that distance.
如果你用一块板把它分开，你就可以看见两支蜡烛。
And that's the kind of resolution that you need to begin to image that little speck of dust as it comes around the sun
只有有了这种分辨率，你才能看清太阳周围的灰尘，
and see if it has a blue-green signature.
以及看见蓝绿光信号。
And if it does have a blue-green signature, it means that life is common in the universe.
如果蓝绿光信号存在，就表示宇宙中存在生命。
The first time you ever see a blue-green signature on a distant planet,
如果你第一次在一棵遥远的星球上看见蓝绿光信号，
it means there's photosynthesis there, there's water there,
这就表示那里有光合作用的存在，有水，
and the chances that you saw the only other planet with photosynthesis are about zero.
而你发现别的星球上存在光合作用的几率为零。
And that's a calendar-changing event.
随着时间的发展这是会变的。
There's a before and after we were alone in the universe: forget about the discovery of whatever continent.
在我们之前或之后宇宙中总会有别的生命，所以忘掉这些吧。
So as you're thinking about this, we're now beginning to be able to image most of the universe.
如果你这样想，我们就可以开始想象大部分的宇宙了。
And that is a time of miracle and wonder. And we kind of take that for granted.
那是奇迹存在的时代。而我们把这些想的有点过于理所当然了。
Something similar is happening in life. So we're hearing about life in these little bits and pieces.
类似的事情正发生在生命体上。我们听说过生命是由一些微小的部分组成的。
We hear about CRISPR, and we hear about this technology, and we hear about this technology.
我们听说过基因改良，听说过这种技术，听说过那种技术。
But the bottom line on life is that life turns out to be code.
但关于生命，最基本的一点是生命是一种代码。
And life as code is a really important concept because it means,
这是一个非常重要的理论，因为它意味着，
just in the same way as you can write a sentence in English or in French or Chinese,
你可以用英语、法语或是中文写句子，
just in the same way as you can copy a sentence, just in the same way as you can edit a sentence,
你可以抄写一个句子，可以编写一个句子，
just in the same way as you can print a sentence, you're beginning to be able to do that with life.
可以打印一个句子，现在开始你可以对生命做同样的事。
It means that we're beginning to learn how to read this language.
这意味着我们开始学会阅读这种语言。
And this, of course, is the language that is used by this orange.
当然，这个橘子也使用着同样的语言。
So how does this orange execute code? It doesn't do it in ones and zeroes like a computer does.
那么一个橘子如何执行一串代码呢？它的语言不像计算机语言那样由0和1组成。
It sits on a tree, and one day it does: plop! And that means: execute.
它长在树上，有一天扑通一声掉下来。这就是执行了一个任务。
AATCAAG: make me a little root. TCGACC: make me a little stem.
AATCAAG：我要长根。TCGACC：我要长出枝干。
GAC: make me some leaves. AGC: make me some flowers.
GAC：我要长叶子。AGC：我要开花。
And then GCAA: make me some more oranges.
然后GCAA：再结几个橘子。
If I edit a sentence in English on a word processor, then what happens is you can go from this word to that word.
如果我在文字处理器中输入一个句子，你就可以从这个单词看到这个单词。
If I edit something in this orange and put in GCAAC, using CRISPR or something else that you've heard of,
如果我在这个橘子输入GCAAC，再加上CRISPR或你听说过的其他技术，
then this orange becomes a lemon, or it becomes a grapefruit, or it becomes a tangerine.
那么这个橘子就可以变成一个柠檬，或者变成一颗西柚，或者一颗蜜橘。
And if I edit one in a thousand letters, you become the person sitting next to you today. Be more careful where you sit.
如果我输入一千个单词，你就变成了坐在你旁边这个人。要小心你坐的位置哦。
What's happening on this stuff is it was really expensive to begin with. It was like long-distance calls.
事实上这件事起步时耗资是很多的。就像远距离通信一样。
But the cost of this is dropping 50 percent faster than Moore's law.
但是现在其成本下降的速度比摩尔定律还要快一半。
The first $200 full genome was announced yesterday by Veritas.
前200美元的全基因组昨天由奕真生物宣布。
And so as you're looking at these systems, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, and then it does.
你看着这些系统，想，这个没关系，这个没关系，这个也没关系，然后突然就有关系了。
So let me just give you the map view of this stuff.
我来带你们用全局视角看一遍。
This is a big discovery. There's 23 chromosomes. Cool.
这是一项重大的发现。人体有23对染色体。很厉害。
Let's now start using a telescope version, but instead of using a telescope,
我们用望远镜看到的版本来看，但是仪器我们不用望远镜，
let's use a microscope to zoom in on the inferior of those chromosomes, which is the Y chromosome.
我们用显微镜，拉近来看Y染色体。
It's a third the size of the X. It's recessive and mutant. But hey, just a male.
它比X染色体大三倍。属于隐形染色体，更易发生变化。但是这是个男性的染色体。
And as you're looking at this stuff, here's kind of a country view at a 400 base pair resolution level,
可以看见，这是看一个国家的视角，400个碱基对，
and then you zoom in to 550, and then you zoom in to 850,
然后我们再看550个，850个，
and you can begin to identify more and more genes as you zoom in.
然后镜头再拉近你就可以看见越来越多的基因。
Then you zoom in to the state level, and you can begin to tell who's got leukemia,
然后调成看州的距离，你就可以看到谁得了白血病，
how did they get leukemia, what kind of leukemia do they have, what shifted from what place to what place.
怎么得的白血病，得的什么种类的白血病，是什么从哪个位置转移到了哪个位置。
And then you zoom in to the Google street view level.
然后拉近到谷歌街景的模式。
So this is what happens if you have colorectal cancer for a very specific patient on the letter-by-letter resolution.
所以如果病人得了结肠直肠癌，就是这样分辨的。
So what we're doing in this stuff is we're gathering information and just generating enormous amounts of information.
我们所做的就是收集信息再生成大量的信息。
This is one of the largest databases on the planet and it's growing faster than we can build computers to store it.
这是世界上最大的基因库之一，它成长地飞快以至于我们没有时间用电脑来储存。
You can create some incredible maps with this stuff.
有了这个你可以画出非常全面的图表。
You want to understand the plague and why one plague is bubonic
想弄清楚瘟疫吗，想了解为什么有的瘟疫又叫鼠疫，
and the other one is a different kind of plague and the other one is a different kind of plague?
而另一个又是完全不同的种类，另一个又是不同的种类吗？
Well, here's a map of the plague. Some are absolutely deadly to humans, some are not.
这里有一幅瘟疫的地图。有一些对人类是致命的，有些不是。
And note, by the way, as you go to the bottom of this, how does it compare to tuberculosis?
注意，如果你看底部这里，它跟结核病相比如何呢？
So this is the difference between tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
这就是结核病和各种瘟疫之间的区别，
and you can play detective with this stuff, because you can take a very specific kind of cholera that affected Haiti,
你还可以用这个来玩侦探游戏，找出影响了海地的霍乱，
and you can look at which country it came from, which region it came from,
再在地图上找出它来自哪个国家来自哪个地区，
and probably which soldier took that from that African country to Haiti.
甚至或许还可以找出是哪个士兵从非洲国家把它带到海地的。
Zoom out. It's not just zooming in. This is one of the coolest maps ever done by human beings.
再拉远。我们不仅仅可以拉近。这是人类画出的最酷的地图之一。
What they've done is taken all the genetic information they have about all the species,
我们取得了所有物种的基因信息，
and they've put a tree of life on a single page that you can zoom in and out of.
并在某页上创造了一颗生命之树，你可以随意把镜头拉远或拉近。
So this is what came first, how did it diversify, how did it branch, how large is that genome, on a single page.
你最先看到的是这样的，它的分类，分支，基因组的大小，全都写在一页上。
It's kind of the universe of life on Earth, and it's being constantly updated and completed.
这就是地球上生命的宇宙，并且还在不断地更新和完善。
And so as you're looking at this stuff, the really important change is the old biology used to be reactive.
这些东西发生过一次重要的变化，旧的生物学以前是被动反应的。
You used to have a lot of biologists that had microscopes, and they had magnifying glasses and they were out observing animals.
以前有很多生物学家用显微镜，放大镜等仪器，他们会出门观察动物。
The new biology is proactive. You don't just observe stuff, you make stuff.
新的生物学是主动的。我们不仅观察生命，我们还创造生命。
And that's a really big change because it allows us to do things like this.
这是一项巨大的变化，由于这个变化我们做出了这个。
And I know you're really excited by this picture.
我知道看见这张图你们一定很激动。
It only took us four years and 40 million dollars to be able to take this picture.
拍这张照片只花了我们四年时间加4000万美金。
And what we did is we took the full gene code out of a cell
我们取出了一个细胞中全部的基因代码，
not a gene, not two genes, the full gene code out of a cell -- built a completely new gene code,
不是一个基因，也不是两个，而是一个细胞中全部的基因代码--制造一个新的基因代码，
inserted it into the cell, figured out a way to have the cell execute that code and built a completely new species.
把它嵌入细胞，再想办法让细胞执行这个代码，从而制造出一个全新的物种。
So this is the world's first synthetic life form.
这就是世界上首个合成的生命。
And so what do you do with this stuff?
那么你们可以用它来做什么呢？
Well, this stuff is going to change the world.
它会改变这个世界。
Let me give you three short-term trends in terms of how it's going to change the world.
我用三个短期趋势来展示它会怎样改变世界。
The first is we're going to see a new industrial revolution. And I actually mean that literally.
第一，我们会见证一次新的产业革命。我说的是字面意思。
So in the same way as Switzerland and Germany and Britain changed the world with machines like the one you see in this lobby, created power
就像你们在这间大厅里见到的，就像瑞士、德国、英国用机器改变世界，掌握权力一样，
in the same way CERN is changing the world, using new instruments and our concept of the universe
就像欧洲核子中心改变世界一样，用新的工具和我们关于宇宙的概念，
programmable life forms are also going to change the world
可编写的生命也会改变这个世界，
because once you can program cells in the same way as you program your computer chip, then you can make almost anything.
因为如果你能够像给计算机编程一样给细胞编程，你几乎可以制造出一切。
So your computer chip can produce photographs, can produce music, can produce film, can produce love letters, can produce spreadsheets.
你可以用电脑生成图片、音乐、电影、情书、表格。
It's just ones and zeroes flying through there.
这些都是由1和0组成的。
If you can flow ATCGs through cells, then this software makes its own hardware, which means it scales very quickly.
如果你在细胞里运行ATCG语言，那么这个软件就可以自己制作硬件，也就是说它可以很快的扩展自身的规模。
No matter what happens, if you leave your cell phone by your bedside,
如果你把自己的手机放在床边，那无论如何，
you will not have a billion cell phones in the morning.
你也不会在第二天早上看见床边有一百万只手机。
But if you do that with living organisms, you can make this stuff at a very large scale.
但如果你对有生命的物体这样做，这个物体就会快速扩大自己的规模。
One of the things you can do is you can start producing close to carbon-neutral fuels on a commercial scale by 2025,
你可以做的就是在2025年生产大规模的类碳中和原料，
which we're doing with Exxon. But you can also substitute for agricultural lands.
这也是我们和埃克森公司在做的事。你也可以置换农业用地。
Instead of having 100 hectares to make oils or to make proteins,
不用预备100公顷来制造石油或者生产蛋白质，
you can make it in these vats at 10 or 100 times the productivity per hectare.
一公顷地的产量的10倍或100倍都可以在桶里面生成。
Or you can store information, or you can make all the world's vaccines in those three vats.
你也可以储存信息，三个桶里面的东西就可以制造出所有种类的疫苗。
Or you can store most of the information that's held at CERN in those three vats.
欧洲核子中心的大半信息都可以储存在这三个桶里。
DNA is a really powerful information storage device.
DNA实在是很强大的信息载体。
Second turn: you're beginning to see the rise of theoretical biology.
第二：我们很快能看见理论生物学的崛起。
So, medical school departments are one of the most conservative places on earth.
医学院是世界上最保守的地方之一。
The way they teach anatomy is similar to the way they taught anatomy 100 years ago.
他们现在教授解剖的方式跟100年前教解剖的方式没什么两样。
"Welcome, student. Here's your cadaver."
“欢迎你们，学生们。这是你们的尸体。”
One of the things medical schools are not good at is creating new departments, which is why this is so unusual.
医学院最不擅长的事情之一就是建立新的学科，所以这件事才如此与众不同。
Isaac Kohane has now created a department based on informatics, data, knowledge at Harvard Medical School.
艾萨克·科哈尼就基于情报学，数据和哈佛医学院的知识创建了一个新的学科。
And in a sense, what's beginning to happen is biology is beginning to get enough data that it can begin to follow the steps of physics,
从某种意义上来说，生物学马上就会接触到足够多的数据，从而跟上物理学的脚步，
which used to be observational physics and experimental physicists, and then started creating theoretical biology.
物理学以前氛围观测物理学和实验物理学，现在我们要创建理论生物学。
Well, that's what you're beginning to see because you have so many medical records,
你会看见这一切，因为你有如此多的医学记录，
because you have so much data about people:
因为你有关于人类如此多的数据：
you've got their genomes, you've got their viromes, you've got their microbiomes.
你有他们的基因组、病毒组和微生物群组。
And as this information stacks, you can begin to make predictions.
把这些信息叠加起来，你就可以预测未来。
The third thing that's happening is this is coming to the consumer.
第三件事是关于消费者的。
So you, too, can get your genes sequenced.
你也可以重新排列自己的基因。
And this is beginning to create companies like 23andMe,
就像开23andMe公司一样，
and companies like 23andMe are going to be giving you more and more and more data,
并且23andMe公司将会给你提供越来越多的信息，
not just about your relatives, but about you and your body, and it's going to compare stuff,
不仅是关于你亲属的，还有你和你自己身体的，它会开始比较，
and it's going to compare stuff across time, and these are going to become very large databases.
随着时间流逝，这都会形成巨大的数据库。
But it's also beginning to affect a series of other businesses in unexpected ways.
但一些其他行业也会在意想不到的方面受到影响。
Normally, when you advertise something,
通常来说，当你打广告的时候，
you really don't want the consumer to take your advertisement into the bathroom to pee on.
你不会希望自己的消费者把广告纸拿到浴室，在上面撒尿。
Unless, of course, if you're IKEA.
当然，除非你是宜家。
Because when you rip this out of a magazine and you pee on it, it'll turn blue if you're pregnant.
因为如果你把广告纸从杂志上撕下来，在上面小便，如果你怀孕了纸会变蓝。
And they'll give you a discount on your crib. Right?
你买婴儿围栏的时候他们还会给你打折。
So when I say consumer empowerment, and this is spreading beyond biotech, I actually really mean that.
所以我说到消费者赋权以及这项事业已经不仅限于生物科学，我是认真的。
We're now beginning to produce, at Synthetic Genomics, desktop printers
我们已经开始在合成基因学公司生产桌边打印机，
that allow you to design a cell, print a cell, execute the program on the cell.
有了它你可以设计细胞，打印细胞，并在这个细胞内运行程序。
We can now print vaccines real time as an airplane takes off before it lands.
我们现在已经可以在飞机起飞时开始打印疫苗，落地前就可以生产出来。
We're shipping 78 of these machines this year. This is not theoretical biology. This is printing biology.
我们今年发出了78台这样的机器。这不是理论生物学。这是打印生物学。
Let me talk about two long-term trends that are coming at you over a longer time period.
我来说两个以后会长期存在的潮流。
The first one is, we're starting to redesign species. And you've heard about that, right?
第一个是我们要开始重新设计物种。这个你们听说过是吗？
We're redesigning trees. We're redesigning flowers. We're redesigning yogurt, cheese, whatever else you want.
我们要重新设计树。我们要重新设计花。我们要重新设计酸奶，奶酪，什么都可以。
And that, of course, brings up the interesting question: How and when should we redesign humans?
当然这就引出了一个有趣的问题：我们应该怎样及何时重新设计人类？
And a lot of us think, "Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
很多人会觉得：“不行，我们永远不要重新设计人类。”
Unless, of course, if your child has a Huntington's gene and is condemned to death.
除非你的孩子有亨廷顿基因，并且必死无疑。
Or, unless if you're passing on a cystic fibrosis gene,
或者除非你遗传了囊肿性纤维化致病基因，
in which case, you don't just want to redesign yourself, you want to redesign your children and their children.
如果是这样，你不仅会想重新设计自己，还想重新设计你的孩子和你孩子的孩子。
And these are complicated debates and they're going to happen in real time.
这都会牵涉到复杂的辩论，并且会一直发生。
I'll give you one current example.
我给你们一个现实的例子。
One of the debates going on at the National Academies today is
美国国家科学院今天辩论的主题是，
you have the power to put a gene drive into mosquitoes so that you will kill all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
如果你可以在蚊子体内注入一种基因，它可以杀死所有携带疟疾的蚊子，你怎么选？
Now, some people say, "That's going to affect the environment in an extreme way, don't do it."
有些人说：“这会对环境造成很极端的影响，不要做。”
Other people say, "This is one of the things that's killing millions of people yearly.
另一些人说：“这么多年来疟疾已经杀死了数百万人。
Who are you to tell me that I can't save the kids in my country?"
你凭什么告诉我我不能去救我们国家的那些孩子？”
And why is this debate so complicated?
为什么这场辩论这么复杂呢？
Because as soon as you let this loose in Brazil or in Southern Florida -- mosquitoes don't respect walls.
因为如果你在巴西或南佛罗里达州实行这个计划--蚊子并不会尊重国界。
You're making a decision for the world when you put a gene drive into the air.
如果你把基因注入蚊子体内，你就替全世界做了决定。
This wonderful man won a Nobel Prize, and after winning the Nobel Prize
这个人获得了诺贝尔奖，拿奖之后，
he's been worrying about how did life get started on this planet and how likely is it that it's in other places?
他一直很在意地球上的生命是如何形成的，以及在宇宙中是否还会有类似的事情发生。
So what he's been doing is going around to this graduate students and saying to his graduate students,
所以他所做的就是去找这些研究生，对他们说，
"Build me life but don't use any modern chemicals or instruments.
“不要用任何现代技术或化学制剂，给我造出生命来。
Build me stuff that was here three billion years ago.
造出300亿年前存在的生命。
You can't use lasers. You can't use this. You can't use that."
不要用激光。不要用这。不要用那。”
He gave me a vial of what he's built about three weeks ago. What has he built?
大概三周前，他把他的成果给了我一小瓶。他制作了什么呢？
He's built basically what looked like soap bubbles that are made out of lipids. He's built a precursor of RNA.
他做出来的这个东西很像是用油脂制成的肥皂泡。他做成了核糖核酸的前质。
He's had the precursor of the RNA be absorbed by the cell and then he's had the cells divide.
他拿到了细胞吸收的核糖核酸的前质，然后他把细胞分离出来了。
We may not be that far -- call it a decade, maybe two decades -- from generating life from scratch out of proto-communities.
我们可能还没达到这种程度--10年或者20年--在生命的原生地一点点的创造生命。
Second long-term trend: we've been living and are living through the digital age
第二个会长期存在的趋势是：我们一直生活在数码时代，
we're starting to live through the age of the genome and biology and CRISPR and synthetic biology
我们会经历基金组时代，生物时代，基因改造时代和合成生物时代，
and all of that is going to merge into the age of the brain.
所有这些都会合并成脑力时代。
So we're getting to the point where we can rebuild most of our body parts,
我们会到达能够重新制造大部分身体器官的时代，
in the same way as if you break a bone or burn your skin, it regrows.
就像你摔断骨头或擦破皮时会发生的那样，他们都会再生。
We're beginning to learn how to regrow our tracheas or how to regrow our bladders.
我们开始学习如何再生气管和膀胱。
Both of those have been implanted in humans. Tony Atala is working on 32 different organs.
这些都曾移植到人体过。托尼·阿塔拉正在研究32种不同的器官。
But the core is going to be this, because this is you and the rest is just packaging.
但核心是不变的，这是你，其他的都是附属品。
Nobody's going to live beyond 120, 130, 140 years unless if we fix this.
没有人可以活过120岁，130岁，140岁，除非我们解决掉这个问题。
And that's the most interesting challenge.
这是最有意思的挑战。
That's the next frontier, along with: "How common is life in the universe?" "Where did we come from?" and questions like that.
这是下一个疆界，那时我们还会问：“宇宙中的生命相似程度有多高？”“我们来自哪里？”种种类似的问题。
Let me end this with an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
我用一句不足凭信的爱因斯坦的话来结束这个演讲吧。
It's your choice. You can focus on the bad, you can focus on the scary, and certainly there's a lot of scary out there.
这是你的选择。你可以只着眼于坏的、可怕的东西，当然世界上是有很多可怕的东西。
But use 10 percent of your brain to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent, or maybe 30 percent.
你也可以用10%、20%或30%的精力去关注它。
But just remember, we really are living in an age of miracle and wonder.
但记住我们确实生活在一个充满奇迹的时代。
We're lucky to be alive today. We're lucky to see this stuff.
我们现在还活着是件十分幸运的事。我们很幸运可以见证着一切。
We're lucky to be able to interact with folks like the folks who are building all the stuff in this room.
我们很幸运能跟那些像搭建了这个房间的大师一样的人交流。
So thank you to all of you, for all you do.
谢谢大家，谢谢你们所做的一切。
