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Hello. My name is Herman, and I've always been struck by how the most important, impactful, tsunami-like changes to our culture and our society
大家好。我叫赫尔曼，我一直在思考为何这世上最重要、最具影响力、最能翻天覆地改变我们文化和社会的，
always come from those things that we least think are going to have that impact.
总是来自于那些我们不认为会产生影响的事情。
I mean, as a computer scientist, I remember when Facebook was just image-sharing in dorm rooms,
作为一个计算机科学家，我记得当脸书还只是个大学寝室发家的图片分享网站，
and depending upon who you ask, it's now involved in toppling elections.
而现在，基于你问谁，脸书已经可以左右我们的大选。
I remember when cryptocurrency or automated trading were sort of ideas by a few renegades
我记得当加密货币和自动交易还只是小众人的想法，
in the financial institutions in the world for automated trading, or online,
存在金融行业、自动交易行业和网络上，
for cryptocurrency, and they're now coming to quickly shape the way that we operate.
而它们现在正加速塑形着我们的办事习惯。
And I think each of you can recall that moment where one of these ideas felt like some ignorable, derisive thing,
你们每个人都应该记得一种时刻，当一个想法看起来一无是处，
and suddenly, oh, crap, the price of Bitcoin is what it is.
但突然，它发展得正似比特币价值般突飞猛进。
Or, oh, crap, guess who's been elected.
你再想想，谁当选了美国总统？
The reality is that, you know, from my perspective, I think that we're about to encounter that again.
现实是，在我看来，我们将会再次遇到这情况。
And I think one of the biggest, most impactful changes in the way we live our lives, to the ways we're educated,
我认为对我们生活，对我们如何受教育，
probably even to how we end up making an income, is about to come not from AI,
对我们如何挣工资有着最大影响的，并非来自于人工智能技术，
not from space travel or biotech -- these are all very important future inventions
并非是太空旅行或者生物科技，虽然这些都是非常重要的科技，
but in the next five years, I think it's going to come from video games.
但在下五年，我认为最大影响来自于电子游戏。
So that's a bold claim, OK. I see some skeptical faces in the audience.
好大的口气！我知道。我也看到了观众中质疑的脸。
But if we take a moment to try to look at what video games are already becoming in our lives today,
但让我们试着看看电子游戏当下已变成了什么，
and what just a little bit of technological advancement is about to create, it starts to become more of an inevitability.
以及一点点的技术进步将会创造出什么，我们会发现电子游戏的影响是越来越不可避免的。
And I think the possibilities are quite electrifying.
我认为它的可能性穷乎其穷。
So let's just take a moment to think about scale. I mean, there's already 2.6 billion people who play games.
让我们想想它的规模。现今已经有着26亿人玩电子游戏。
And the reality is that's a billion more than five years ago. A billion more people in that time.
比五年前，多了十亿。五年内增加了十亿人。
No religion, no media, nothing has spread like that.
没有任何一个宗教和媒体可以如此大规模发展。
And there's likely to be a billion more when Africa and India gain the infrastructure
我们可以展望下一个十亿的增加，当非洲和印度的科技发展到位，
to sort of fully realize the possibilities of gaming.
可以充分发挥电子游戏的可能性。
But what I find really special is -- and this often shocks a lot of people
但我感到十分特别的是，这常常会惊到他人，
is that the average age of a gamer, like, have a guess, think about it.
是玩家的平均年龄，你们猜一猜。
It's not six, it's not 18, it's not 12. It's 34. It's older than me.
并不是六岁，不是18岁，也不是12岁。是34岁。我都比这年轻。
And that tells us something, that this isn't entertainment for children anymore.
这也告诉我们，游戏不再是儿童的娱乐。
This is already a medium like literature or anything else that's becoming a fundamental part of our lives.
它已成为像文学一般的媒介，是我们生活不可或缺的一部分。
One stat I like is that people who generally picked up gaming in the last sort of 15, 20 years generally don't stop.
我很喜欢的一组数据显示了在过去十五到二十年中开始打游戏的人们不会放弃这个喜好。
Something changed in the way that this medium is organized.
在这一媒介发展的途中，有些东西变了。
And more than that, it's not just play anymore, right?
这已经大于游戏本身，人们不再仅仅是玩游戏了。
You've heard some examples today, but people are earning an income playing games. And not in the obvious ways.
你听到过这些例子，人们现在通过打游戏挣工资。还不是通过直接的游戏竞技。
Yes, there's e-sports, there's prizes, there's the opportunity to make money in a competitive way.
是的，现今有电子竞技，有奖金，有很多机会可以让人们从竞赛中挣钱。
But there's also people earning incomes modding games, building content in them, doing art in them.
但是也有很多人正在游戏中模组，设计桥段，在游戏中做艺术，通过这些得到薪酬。
I mean, there's something at a scale akin to the Florentine Renaissance,
这种规模堪比佛罗伦萨文艺复兴，
happening on your kid's iPhone in your living room. And it's being ignored.
而这一切可能就发生在你的客厅里孩子正玩弄的iPhone中。它被很多人忽略了。
Now, what's even more exciting for me is what's about to happen.
现在，让我更加兴奋的是未来还会发生什么。
And when you think about gaming, you're probably already imagining that it features these massive, infinite worlds,
当你想到游戏，你可能已经在想象游戏中无限的世界，
but the truth is, games have been deeply limited for a very long time in a way
但其实，游戏在很长一段时间中都被限制了，
that kind of we in the industry have tried very hard to cover up with as much trickery as possible.
而我们这些业界人士一直努力用各种伎俩把这一事实掩盖。
The metaphor I like to use, if you'd let me geek out for a moment, is the notion of a theater.
我喜欢用一个比喻，让我变身极客稍许卖弄一下，就是剧场的概念。
For the last 10 years, games have massively advanced the visual effects, the physical immersion, the front end of games.
在过去的十年中，游戏的视觉效果得到了很大的提升，包括前端效果和视觉冲击。
But behind the scenes, the actual experiential reality of a game world has remained woefully limited.
但在幕后，游戏世界的经验实在仍然被限制。
I'll put that in perspective for a moment.
我来解释一下。
I could leave this theater right now, I could do some graffiti, get in a fight, fall in love.
我现在可以离开这个舞台，我可以去涂鸦，可以打架，可以坠入爱河。
I might actually do all of those things after this, but the point is that all of that would have consequence.
我可能真的会在这演出之后做这些事，但是这些事会有后果。
It would ripple through reality -- all of you could interact with that at the same time. It would be persistent.
这些事会改变我的现实，所有人可以在同一时间做出反应。它的影响是持续性的。
And those are very important qualities to what makes the real world real.
这也就是真实世界真实的重要原因。
Now, behind the scenes in games, we've had a limit for a very long time.
但在游戏幕后，我们很长一段时间都被限制了。
And the limit is, behind the visuals, the actual information being exchanged between players or entities in a single game world
在视觉效果背后，在单个游戏世界中玩家之间或物体之间交换的实际信息，
has been deeply bounded by the fact that games mostly take place on a single server or a single machine.
已经被一个事实所深深束缚，即游戏大多发生在一台服务器或一台机器上。
Even The World of Warcraft is actually thousands of smaller worlds.
就算是“魔兽世界”，也是几千个小世界。
When you hear about concerts in Fortnite, you're actually hearing about thousands of small concerts.
当你在“堡垒之夜”中看到一场演唱会时，你其实看到的是几千场小演唱会。
You know, individual, as was said earlier today, campfires or couches.
这些全都是独自存在的，无论是游戏里面的篝火还是沙发。
There isn't really this possibility to bring it all together.
我们没有什么机会将这些世界联合到一起。
Let's take a moment to just really understand what that means.
让我们来想一想这是什么意思。
When you look at a game, you might see this, beautiful visuals, all of these things happening in front of you.
当你在玩一个游戏时，你可能会看到美好的视觉效果，许多事在你眼前发生。
But behind the scenes in an online game, this is what it looks like.
但是每一个网上游戏的幕后，看起来却是这样的。
To a computer scientist, all you see is just a little bit of information being exchanged by a tiny handful of meaningful entities or objects.
一个计算机科学家看到的仅仅是一点点信息交换于一小撮对象或物品。
You might be thinking, "I've played in an infinite world."
你可能在想，“我正在探索一个无限的世界。”
Well it's more that you've played on a treadmill.
其实，你仅仅只是在跑步机上前进。
As you've been walking through that world,
在你探索游戏世界时，
we've been cleverly causing the parts of it that you're not in to vanish, and the parts of it in front of you to appear.
我们很聪明地使你没到的地方消失不见，而你正处在的地方显示出来。
A good trick, but not the basis for the revolution that I promised you in the beginning of this talk.
这是一个不错的小伎俩，但是这并不能成为我刚刚向你们保证的游戏革命的基石。
But the reality is, for those of you that are passionate gamers and might be excited about this,
但我想告诉你们之中对此非常兴奋的狂热玩家，
and for those of you that are afraid and may not be, all of that is about to change.
和感到些许恐惧或毫无反应的人们，这一切将要改变。
Because finally, the technology is in place to go well beyond the limits that we've previously seen.
因为，我们的科技终于到位了，可以跨域我们之前遇到的瓶颈。
I've dedicated my career to this, there are many others working on the problem -- I'd hardly take credit for it myself,
这是我的事业，还有其他的战友一起在研究这个，我不想把这个功劳加在我身上，
but we're at the point now where we can finally do this impossible hard thing
但我们现在终于可以开始做以前我们认为完全不可能的事：
of weaving together thousands of disparate machines into single simulations
把几千台独立的机器联合到一个模拟世界中，
that are convenient enough to not be one-offs, but to be buildable by anybody.
这个模拟世界并非由一方所控制并建造的，而是可以被所有人建造的。
And to be at the point where we can start to experience those things that we can't yet fathom.
在那时，我们会开始经历我们现在还无法想象的事。
Let's just take a moment to visualize that.
让我们想一下。
I'm talking about not individual little simulations but a massive possibility of huge networks of interaction.
我说的并不是单独的模拟世界，而是一个巨大的交互网络。
Massive global events that can happen inside that.
全球性事件可以发生在其中。
Things that even in the real world become challenging to produce at that kind of scale.
这些事在现实世界中的可做不到那么大的规模。
And I know some of you are gamers, so I'm going to show you some footage of some things
我知道台下的一些人是游戏玩家，我想给你们看一些视频，
that I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to do, from some of our partners. TED and me had a back-and-forth on this.
这些来自于我们的合作伙伴。我和TED讨论了很久了。
These are a few things that not many people have seen before, some new experiences powered by this type of technology.
这些很多人都没见过，它们是由当今科技支持的新游戏体验。
I'll just a moment to show you some of this stuff.
我现在给你们看看。
This is a single game world with thousands of simultaneous people participating in a conflict.
这是一个单独的游戏世界，其中，数千人同时参与了一场冲突。
It also has its own ecosystem, its own sense of predator and prey.
这个世界有独自的生态系统，自主分类出的捕食者和猎物。
Every single object you see here is simulated in some way.
你在这里看到的每一个物体都是以某种方式模拟出来的。
This is a game being built by one of the biggest companies in the world, NetEase, a huge Chinese company.
这个游戏是世界上最大的公司之一，网易，一家中国公司。
And they've made an assistant creative simulation
他们创建了一个创造性辅助模拟世界，
where groups of players can cocreate together, across multiple devices, in a world that doesn't vanish when you're done.
很多玩家组可以用不同的机器一起创造一个游戏世界，这个世界不会在你创立完后消失。
It's a place to tell stories and have adventures. Even the weather is simulated.
在这个世界中，人们可以讲故事，可以畅游冒险。游戏中的天气也是模拟的。
And that's kind of awesome. And this is my personal favorite.
这太棒了。这是我最喜欢的。
This is a group of people, pioneers in Berlin, a group called Klang Games,
一群在柏林的游戏玩家，他们叫做Klang Games，
and they're completely insane, and they'll love me for saying that.
他们特别疯狂，他们也喜欢我这样称呼他们。
And they found a way to model, basically, an entire planet.
他们找到了一种方式来建模整个星球。
They're going to have a simulation with millions of non-player characters and players engaging.
他们将要建造一个模拟世界，有百万个非玩家和玩家角色共同创造。
They actually grabbed Lawrence Lessig to help understand the political ramifications of the world they're creating.
他们还邀请了劳伦斯·莱斯格来帮助他们认清他们所创建的世界的政治影响。
This is the sort of astounding set of experiences, well beyond what we might have imagined, that are now going to be possible.
这是一种令人震惊的经历，远超过我们所想象的，而如今成为了现实。
And that's just the first step in this technology.
这仅仅是这种科技的第一步。
So if we step beyond that, what happens?
所以若我们跨过那一步，什么会发生？
Well, computer science tends to be all exponential, once we crack the really hard problems.
计算机科学倾向于指数增长，在我们解决很难的问题后。
And I'm pretty sure that very soon,
我确定在很近的未来，
we're going to be in a place where we can make this type of computational power look like nothing.
我们会到达一个境界，那时，这种计算机技术根本不算什么。
And when that happens, the opportunities... It's worth taking a moment to try to imagine what I'm talking about here.
那时，我们的机会穷乎其穷。花点时间想想我说的是什么。
Hundreds of thousands or millions of people being able to coinhabit the same space.
成百上千，百万的人可以栖息在在同一空间。
The last time any of us as a species had the opportunity to build or do something together with that may people was in antiquity.
上一次我们人类有机会大规模共同塑造还是在古典时代。
And the circumstances were less than optimal, shall we say. Mostly conflicts or building pyramids.
而当时的环境可没如今那么完美。人类当时不是战火纷飞，就是在造金字塔。
Not necessarily the best thing for us to be spending our time doing.
并不是我们应该花时间做的。
But if you bring together that many people, the kind of shared experience that can create ...
但如果现在你可以组织起这么多人它创造出的共同体验，无法想象。
I think it exercises a social muscle in us that we've lost and forgotten.
我认为，它可以活动我们体内被忽略了很久的社会肌肉。
Going even beyond that, I want to take a moment to think about what it means for relationships, for identity.
在这之上，我想谈谈这对于关系，对于身份的影响。
If we can give each other worlds, experiences at scale
如果我们能给彼此世界，给彼此经验，
where we can spend a meaningful amount of our time, we can change what it means to be an individual.
我们花大量的有意义时间，我们就能改变个体的意义。
We can go beyond a single identity to a diverse set of personal identities.
我们可以超越单一的身份，去拥抱更多元的个人身份。
The gender, the race, the personality traits you were born with might be something you want to experiment differently with.
性别，种族，这些与生俱来的特征可以变成你可以尝试变化的。
You might be someone that wants to be more than one person.
你可以成为有多重身份的人。
We all are, inside, multiple people. We rarely get the opportunity to flex that.
在我们的内心深处，我们都是几个不同的人。而我们以前没有机会展示这些。
It's also about empathy. I have a grandmother who I have literally nothing in common with.
这也有关同理心。我和我的祖母没有任何共同点。
I love her to bits, but every story she has begins in 1940 and ends sometime in 1950.
我爱她至深，但她讲的每一个故事都始于20世纪40年代，终于20世纪50年代。
And every story I have is like 50 years later.
而我的故事都发生在五十年后。
But if we could coinhabit, co-experience things together, that undiminished by physical frailty or by lack of context,
但如果我们可以共同栖息共同体验，而不被物理上的隔阂或背景环境的缺失所阻碍，
create opportunities together, that changes things, that bonds people in different ways.
我们可以共同创造机会，这会改变很多事，它以不同的方式把人们联系在一起。
I'm struck by how social media has amplified our many differences,
我深刻地感受到社交媒体放大了人与人之间的不同，
and really made us more who we are in the presence of other people.
并可以让我们在他人面前展示真实的自己。
I think games could really start to create an opportunity for us to empathize again.
而我相信游戏也会开始创建这样的机会，让我们可以拥有同理心。
To have shared adversity, shared opportunity.
同甘共苦，分享机会。
I mean, statistically, at this moment in time, there are people who are on the opposite sides of a conflict,
数据上来看，在这个时代，站在冲突的对立面的人们，
who have been matchmade together into a game and don't even know it.
可能在一个网络游戏中匹配为战友，而他们对此一无所知。
That's an incredible opportunity to change the way we look at things.
这是一个非常棒的机会，让我们改变看待事物的方法。
Finally, for those of you who perhaps are more cynical about all of this,
现在，你们之中对这感到有些怀疑的人，
who maybe don't think that virtual worlds and games are your cup of tea.
你们可能觉得虚拟世界或者游戏并非是你们所喜欢的。
There's a reality you have to accept, and that is that the economic impact of what I'm talking about will be profound.
但你们得接受一个事实，就是它的经济效益会是深远的。
Right now, thousands of people have full-time jobs in gaming.
现在，上千人将游戏作为他们的全职工作。
Soon, it will be millions of people. Wherever there's a mobile phone, there will be a job.
这个数字马上会上升至百万人。哪里有手机，哪里就有工作。
An opportunity for something that is creative and rich and gives you an income,
这个机会充满着创新，你可以有工资拿，
no matter what country you're in, no matter what skills or opportunities you might think you have.
无论你身处何方，无论你觉得自己的资历和机会好不好。
Probably the first dollar most kids born today make might be in a game.
而现今出生的孩子们赚的第一块钱，很有可能就是在游戏中。
That will be the new paper route, that will be the new opportunity for an income at the earliest time in your life.
这会在你非常年轻的时候，成为一个新的收入渠道，新的薪资来源。
So I kind of want to end with almost a plea, really, more than thoughts.
所以我想以一个恳求，而非一个想法来结束我的演讲。
A sense of, I think, how we need to face this new opportunity a little differently to some we have in the past.
我们应该如何面对这个新的机会，我觉得应该和过去的我们有些不同。
It's so hypocritical for yet another technologist to stand up on stage and say, "The future will be great, technology will fix it."
台上站着个科技人员，告诉大家，“未来是美好的，因为科技可以改变一切”，这好像有一点虚伪。
And the reality is, this is going to have downsides.
事实是，这个机会当然会有缺点。
But those downsides will only be amplified
但是这些缺点会被放大，
if we approach, once again, with cynicism and derision, the opportunities that this presents.
如果我们以犬儒主义和嘲笑的态度来面对它所带来的机会。
The worst thing that we could possibly do is let the same four or five companies end up dominating yet another adjacent space.
我们可以做到最糟糕的就是让同样的四、五个大公司再次垄断了一个产业空间。
Because they're not just going to define how and who makes money from this.
因为他们不只会定义如何以及谁能从中赚钱。
The reality is, we're now talking about defining how we think,
事实是，我们现在谈论的将会主导我们的思维，
what the rules are around identity and collaboration, the rules of the world we live in.
影响我们对于身份和合作定下的条规，改变这个世界的秩序。
This has got to be something we all own, we all cocreate.
这些一定要成为所有人共同拥有的，共同创造的。
So, my final plea is really to those engineers, those scientists, those artists in the audience today.
所以我最终的请求，面向观众中所有的工程师，所有的科学家，所有的艺术家。
Maybe some of you dreamed of working on space travel.
也许你们畅想过太空之旅。
The reality is, there are worlds you can build right here, right now, that can transform people's lives.
但事实是，在这里，在这一时刻，就有很多世界等待着你们的创造，它们会永远地改变人们的生活。
There are still huge technological frontiers that need to be overcome here,
仍有巨大的技术前沿需要我们去攻克掌握，
akin to those we faced when building the early internet.
就像早期建立互联网的时候一样。
All the technology behind virtual worlds is different.
建立虚拟世界的科技是非常独特的。
So, my plea to you is this. Let's engage, let's all engage,
我的恳求就是：让我们都参与进来，参与进来，
let's actually try to make this something that we shape in a positive way,
让我们把它变成一件我们可以积极创造的事，
rather than once again have be done to us. Thank you.
而不是再次变得被动。谢谢。
