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铭记气候变化…一条来自2071年的消息

来源:可可英语 编辑:Vicki   可可英语APP下载 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet

The 2020s were a crux in human history.

2020年代是人类历史上的一个关键时期。

They began with the first pandemic, a slap to the face of everyone, as they had to acknowledge that they were a single civilization on a single biosphere, utterly dependent on science to keep them alive.

2020年始于疫情大流行,这给每个人敲醒警钟,人们不得不承认自己是单一生物圈上的单一文明,需要依赖科学来维持生命。

Civilization is a fragile thing.

文明是一种脆弱的东西。

And although people started the '20s hoping to ignore that profound truth, even after the first pandemic, the great heat waves of 2023 torched any such hope.

尽管人们在20年代开始时希望忽略这一事实,但在第一次大流行之后,2023年的热浪也将这种希望付之一炬。

Humans cannot survive combinations of high heat and high humidity that rise above an index temperature called "wet-bulb 35."

人类无法在高于 “湿球35 ”指数的高热和高湿度的组合中生存。

And that year, the wet-bulb 36 events in India, in Southeast Asia and in the American Midwest killed so many more people than the first pandemic that it was made clear to everyone things simply had to change.

那年,在印度、东南亚和美国中西部发生的湿球36事件造成了比这次大流行病更多的人死亡,大家都清楚,我们必须要做出改变。

The arrival of the second pandemic put an exclamation mark on all that.

第二次大流行病的到来给这一切画上了一个感叹号。

The question at that desperate point was: Could things change?

在那个令人绝望的时刻我们面临的问题是:我们能改变这些事情吗?

Could humanity stop its destructive ways and restore balance to its relationship to its biosphere?

人类能否停止其破坏性的方式,恢复其与生物圈的平衡关系?

Crucially, could it lower the global average temperature of the earth in time to avoid killing millions more people, more animals and indeed entire species?

最重要的是,它能否及时降低地球的全球平均温度,以避免更多的人、更多的动物乃至整个物种的死亡?

Looking back from our perspective 60 years later, this of course looks possible, because they did it.

60年后,从我们的角度看,这当然是可能的,因为人们做到了。

But it was by no means a sure thing.

但这绝不是一件肯定能完成的事。

You have to imagine what it felt like at the time, when panic filled the air, and no one could be sure success was even physically possible.

你必须想象一下当时的感觉,当时空气中充满了恐慌,没有人能够确定是否能成功。

Many declared that humanity was doomed.

许多人宣布,人类注定要失败。

This is why that decade gets called "the turbulent 20s" or "the terrifying 20s."

这就是为什么那十年被称为 “动荡的20年代 ”或 “可怕的20年代”。

Only much later did some historians begin to call it "the terrific 20s" or even "the roaring 20s," although that's a historian's joke and as usual, a bad one.

直到很久以后,一些历史学家才开始称它为 “了不起的20年代”,甚至是 “咆哮的20年代”,尽管那是一个历史学家常说的笑话,和往常一样,是一个不好的玩笑。

It was not at all like the roaring twenties of a century before.

它与一个世纪前的咆哮的20年代完全不同。

It was much stranger than that.

比那要奇怪的多。

In these critical years, lessons learned in the first pandemic got put to use.

在这关键的几年里,在第一次大流行病中吸取的教训得到了应用。

The scientific community had rallied to meet that crisis in an unprecedented way, unleashing a burst of cooperation and creativity never seen before.

那就是科学界要团结起来,以前所未有的方式应对危机,释放出前所未有的合作和创造力。

And now they did it again.

而现在他们再次做到了。

Things that had once seemed impossible became the new normal, and the heat waves of 2023 spurred an all-hands-on-deck mentality,

曾经看起来不可能的事情变成了新的常态,2023年的热浪刺激了一种全员参与的心态,

in which almost every solution ever proposed to help solve the climate crisis got accelerated to roll out and given a try.

其中几乎所有曾经提出的帮助解决气候危机的解决方案都被加速推出并得到了尝试。

The diversity of this effort makes any study of the 20s a very multidisciplinary affair -- which I like -- involving all of science, technology, engineering and medicine, STEM yes, our great tool kit,

这种努力的多样性使得对20年代的任何研究都是一个非常多学科的事情--我喜欢--涉及所有的科学、技术、工程和医学,STEM,都是伟大的工具,

but also, crucially: governance, law, justice, diplomacy, philosophy and the arts, and most of all, finance.

但关键是也要包含:治理、法律、司法、外交、哲学和艺术,以及最重要的金融。

Rapid changes in civilization software were what allowed for the rapid changes in its hardware.

文明软件的快速变化使其硬件也快速变化。

Crucially, the people of that time had to arrange to pay themselves to do the things necessary to heal the biosphere.

最重要的是,当时的人们必须安排支付的费用,以做修复生物圈所需的事情。

Money had to go to good work rather than bad.

钱必须用于好的工作而不是坏的工作。

This was the crux.

这就是问题的关键。

QQ截图20210922130730_副本.png

With that change enacted, there was all manner of good work ready to be performed.

随着这一变化的颁布,我们将执行各种各样的好工作。

It has to be understood that before the 20s, capital always went to the highest rate of return.

我们必须明白,在20年代之前,资本总是流向最高的回报率。

That was the law of capital, often literally the law.

这就是资本的法则,常常是字面上的法则。

Restoring damage done to the biosphere, taking carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere -- these did not yield the highest rate of return, so money went elsewhere, and thus the catastrophe struck home.

恢复对生物圈造成的破坏,将二氧化碳从大气中收回 -- 这些并没有产生最高的回报率,因此资金流向了其他地方,因此灾难发生在国内。

Strange as it seems now, the funding of destruction might even have continued were it not for a basic change in the global political economy,

现在看来很奇怪,如果不是全球政治经济的基本变化,这种破坏的资金甚至可能继续下去,

a change oriented by science, organized under the Paris Agreement and then enacted by all the nations on earth.

这种变化以科学为导向,在《巴黎协定》框架下组织起来,由地球上所有国家颁布。

The mechanism for this transformation was called the Network for Greening the Financial System, an organization of 89 of the world's central banks.

这一变革的机制被称为 “金融系统绿色化网络”,是由世界上89家中央银行组成的组织。

Under the direction and encouragement of their governments, these central banks shifted the world to what some now call the carbon standard.

在其政府的指导和鼓励下,这些中央银行将世界转移到一些人现在称之为碳标准的地方。

It also gets called "carbon quantitative easing" or "the carbon coin."

它也被称为 “碳量化宽松 ”或 “碳硬币”。

The idea was this: that new fiat money should be created precisely in proportion to the amount of carbon dioxide taken out of the atmosphere and sequestered in plants, soil or the rocks under our feet.

这个想法是这样的:新的法定货币应该按照从大气中取出并封存在植物、土壤或我们脚下岩石中的二氧化碳的数量来创造。

And that new money was to be given to anyone who drew carbon back out of the air or demonstrably and over the long term refrained from burning it in the first place.

而新的货币将被给予任何从空气中抽出碳的人,或者在长期内明显地避免燃烧碳的人。

This monetary and fiscal policy reoriented a huge proportion of human work to decarbonizing projects, and there were a lot of them ready to go.

这种货币和财政政策将人类工作的很大一部分重新定位到去碳化项目上,而且有很多项目已经准备就绪。

Regenerative agriculture was one giant area, very important, as people still needed to eat while saving the world.

再生农业是一个巨大的领域,非常重要,因为人们在拯救世界的同时仍然需要吃饭。

Reforestation, where appropriate, was also a rapid method of carbon drawdown.

在适当的情况下,重新造林也是一种快速的碳减排方法。

So was direct air capture, which required an entirely new physical infrastructure, all paid for by carbon coins.

直接空气捕集也是如此,这需要一个全新的物理基础设施,而这一切全部由碳币支付。

Some captured carbon got rendered into replacements for concrete and steel, and that, too, earned carbon coins.

一些捕获的碳被转化为混凝土和钢铁的替代品,这也是赚取碳币的方法。

Habitat restoration also helped, usually.

人居环境的恢复通常也有帮助。

Once people were getting paid to take care of the earth's land and animals, carbon drawdown then joined the effort to stop the mass extinction event that we had been slipping into.

一旦人们得到报酬来照顾地球上的土地和动物,碳减排就会加入到阻止我们已经陷入的大规模灭绝事件的努力中。

Of course, clean energy is fundamental to powering all of this good work, and installing thousands of gigawatts of clean energy production was a mammoth task.

当然,清洁能源是为所有这些好工作提供动力的根本,而安装数千兆瓦的清洁能源生产是一项巨大的任务。

Millions of people spent their careers in this great infrastructural transformation.

数以百万计的人在这个伟大的基础设施改造中度过了他们的职业生涯。

Indeed, there was so much work to be done in the 20s that governments funding it were able to create full employment.

事实上,在20年代有如此多的工作要做,以至于政府资助它能够创造充分就业。

"Create full employment," which of course means an end to poverty.

“创造充分就业”,这当然意味着结束贫困。

That there wouldn't be enough work for people, that there was a contradiction between people's health and the biosphere's health --

人们不会有足够的工作,人们的健康和生物圈的健康之间存在着矛盾--

these were confusions so ingrained in the era before the 20s, they're now hard to understand.

这些都是20年代之前的时代根深蒂固的困惑,现在我们很难理解它。

But hindsight is 20/20, if you'll excuse me saying so.

但百分之百很多人是事后诸葛亮,如果你能原谅我这么说的话。

And as for keeping fossil fuels in the ground, this, too, had to be compensated, as many nations were literally banking on these resources, the burning of which would ironically have destroyed them.

将化石燃料留在地下,这也必须得到补偿,因为许多国家实际上是依靠这些资源,这些资源的燃烧将摧毁它们。

When petrostates like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Russia declared they were going to keep it in the ground,

当委内瑞拉、沙特阿拉伯、加拿大和俄罗斯等石油国宣布他们将把化石燃料留在地下时,

they were paid in carbon coins, on a timetable matched to how quickly they would have extracted and sold these fuels.

他们得到了碳币的补偿,其时间表与他们开采和出售这些燃料的速度相匹配。

At the level of cities, infrastructure changes got paid for as they reduced carbon burn.

在城市的层面上,基础设施的改变在减少碳燃烧的同时也得到了回报。

Mass transit projects, electric car recharging stations, infill construction, city agriculture, clean power generation -- all these actions earned carbon coins at the city level.

大众交通项目、电动汽车充电站、填充式建筑、城市农业、清洁发电--所有这些行动都能在城市层面上获得碳币。

And individuals could earn the coins as well, by efforts such as no-till agriculture or green ranching, peat bog creation, kelp farming and also swapping out dirty machines for clean ones.

而个人也可以通过免耕农业或绿色畜牧业、泥炭沼泽的建立、海带养殖以及将肮脏的机器换成清洁的机器等努力来获得碳币。

All such decarbonizing efforts now made money rather than cost money.

所有这些去碳化的努力现在都能赚钱,而不是花钱。

Well, of course, there were many problems created by this shift in value.

当然,这种价值的转变带来了许多问题。

Certifying carbon drawdown became a huge industry in itself, and anything that gets measured gets gamed.

认证碳减排本身成为一个巨大的产业,任何被测量的东西都会被操纵。

So this was not a simple matter.

所以这不是一个简单的问题。

But it got done.

但它已经完成了。

And then, the heat waves of 2027 made it seem as if all their good work had come too late, the people could no longer stop a slide into catastrophe.

2027年的热浪让人觉得他们所有的好工作都来得太晚了,人们必将滑向灾难。

Things could have fallen apart that year, and there was enough turmoil to make it seem like that was what was happening.

那一年,事情可能会分崩离析,而且足够的动荡让人觉得这就是正在发生的事情。

The countries that cast dust into the atmosphere the next summer to deflect sunlight into space and cool things off for a while -- these countries were excoriated by many, but thanked by many more.

那些在第二年夏天向大气层投掷尘埃的国家,使阳光转向太空,使事情暂时冷却下来--这些国家被许多人痛骂,但也被更多人感谢。

The sense of emergency grew strong, and political instability spread like wildfire.

愈演愈烈的紧急感,政治不稳定像野火一样蔓延。

The creation of a dozen new countries by way of divorces, velvet or otherwise, was hard to reconcile with the climate emergency work.

通过分割的方式建立了十几个新的国家,无论是天鹅绒还是其他,都很难与气候应急工作相协调。

And for some years, history seemed to fall into chaos.

在许多年里,历史似乎陷入了混乱。

Often seems that way.

通常看起来是这样的。

The global temperatures cooled for a few years after that, and political temperatures cooled as well.

在那之后的几年里,全球气温下降,政治温度也随之下降。

Indigenous people took an active role in managing the lands that they knew the best, bringing back much-needed values of long-term care.

原住民在管理他们最熟悉的土地方面发挥了积极作用,带回了急需的长期护理价值。

Women's empowerment continued to expand by way of the continuous and undeniable work of women.

通过妇女持续和不可忽视的工作,妇女的权力继续扩大。

And when the world's population then began to level off, pressures of all kinds were reduced accordingly.

而当世界人口开始趋于平缓时,各种压力也相应减少。

The project also of leaving a big percentage of the earth's surface to our cousin species gained momentum,

将地球表面的很大一部分留给我们的表亲物种的项目也得到了发展,

with large reserves of wildland connected by habitat corridors to make migrations possible again.

大量的野生土地储备被栖息地走廊连接起来,使迁徙再次成为可能。

And the mass extinction event that had looked inevitable began to shift into a global project of mutual care.

看起来不可避免的大规模灭绝事件开始转变为相互关怀的全球项目。

Although the sunlight deflection of 2028 remains by far the most famous act of geofinessing,

尽管2028年的太阳光偏移仍然是迄今为止最著名的地球物理学行为,

it's important to recall the effort in Antarctica and Greenland to pump meltwater out from under the great glaciers that were then sliding faster and faster into the sea.

但重要的是要记住在南极洲和格陵兰岛的努力,从大冰川下抽出融水,这些冰川当时正越来越快地滑入大海。

Sea level rise could have been a catastrophe for everybody, not just near the coastlines, but everybody.

海平面上升可能对每个人都是一场灾难,不仅仅是在海岸线附近的人,而是每个人。

But removing that meltwater beneath the glaciers caused their ice to bottom out on rock again, slowed the ice back to its historical norms.

但是,冰川下的融水消失,使它们的冰层再次触底,减缓了冰层的速度,使其回到历史上的标准。

Sea level rise is still a concern, of course, but in this matter, as in so many, carbon drawdown is a huge help.

当然,海平面上升仍然是一个问题,但在这个问题上,就像在许多问题上一样,碳的减少会是一个巨大的帮助。

It's the clear signal indicating that we have taken up our responsibility for keeping the biosphere in balance,

这是一个明确的信号,表明我们已经承担起保持生物圈平衡的责任,

that the parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere is now under our control and a matter of international treaty negotiation.

大气中每百万分之一的二氧化碳现处于我们的控制之下,这也是国际条约谈判关注的问题。

This is really the great accomplishment of our time.

这确实是我们这个时代的伟大成就。

It means we can put sea level, along with everything else, onto a shared path towards long-term stability.

这意味着我们可以把海平面和其他一切都纳入到一个共同的道路上,实现长期稳定。

It's another way in which we can say we now live on the carbon standard.

这是另一种方式,我们可以说我们现在的生活是基于碳标准的。

We take that for granted now.

我们现在认为这是理所当然的。

But 60 years ago, it was a challenge no generation had had to beat.

但在60年前,这是任何一代人都无法战胜的挑战。

That they did it is something we should be grateful for, and indeed, the more historians like me look at the 20s, the more amazing they become.

他们做到了这一点,我们应该心存感激,事实上,像我这样的历史学家越回顾20年代,就会发现他们很了不起。

Those people really stepped up. Thank you.

这些人真的很伟大。谢谢大家的聆听。

重点单词   查看全部解释    
species ['spi:ʃiz]

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n. (单复同)物种,种类

 
fiscal ['fiskəl]

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adj. 财政的,国库的

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desperate ['despərit]

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adj. 绝望的,不顾一切的

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undeniable [.ʌndi'naiəbl]

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adj. 不可否认的,无可辩驳的

 
diplomacy [di'pləuməsi]

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n. 外交

 
ironically [ai'rɔnikli]

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adv. 讽刺地,说反话地

 
regenerative [ri'dʒenəreitiv, -rə-, ri:-]

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adj. 再生的,更生的;更新的

 
spread [spred]

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v. 伸展,展开,传播,散布,铺开,涂撒
n.

 
profound [prə'faund]

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adj. 深奥的,深邃的,意义深远的

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arrange [ə'reindʒ]

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vt. 安排,整理,计划,改编(乐曲)
vi.

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