5. 伊朗（Iran）

Iran could be an important regional force for stability. But for the near term that looks pretty unlikely. Meanwhile, if the Iranian nuclear program triggers a regional arms race that may not mean state-on-state thermonuclear disaster (deterrence probably still works for most states) but it vastly increases the likelihood that some nuke ends up in the hands of some non-state (or allegedly non-state) actor.

　　伊朗可能会成为维护地区稳定的重要力量，但是从近期来看，其发挥稳定作用的可能性不大。此外，伊朗核计划极有可能引发地区军备竞赛。尽管这并不意味着会造成核灾难，却非常有可能让核武器落入不受国家控制的玩家手中。