4. 俄罗斯（Russia）

I rank them behind Pakistan because the odds are better that their desire to be part of the world system ultimately suppresses the country's more dangerous impulses. And because they are likely for the near term to be more dangerous as a diplomatic and political disruptor and as a regional mischief maker than as a direct military threat to anyone outside their immediate neighborhood. If I'm in that neighborhood though, I'm uncomfortable. And on top of all that, the most recent picture of a bare-chested Putin on horseback has me worried.
把俄罗斯排在巴基斯坦后面，希望俄罗斯的正能压邪。在短期内，俄罗斯的威胁还只局限于外交和政治上，至多是地区性的麻烦制造者，而非直接的全球性军事威胁。要是谁当俄罗斯的邻居，肯定会寝食难安。此外，普京骑在马上袒胸露臂的照片让我感到非常不安。