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共享经济和新农奴制风险

来源:可可英语 编辑:shaun   可可英语APP下载 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have been pitching at voters their plans to revitalise the American economy. The proposals from Mr Trump, the Republican nominee, come with the usual dose of cognitive dissonance; he claims to be a fan of fiscal stimulus yet his new economic advisory committee consists of what seem to be the last surviving “supply-siders”, proponents of Reagan-era trickle down theory. Mrs Clinton’s plans have more intellectual coherence — the Democratic nominee is promising big investments in infrastructure, manufacturing and clean energy, intended to create better paying jobs. But neither candidate has fully addressed the most important trend in labour markets — the gig economy.

希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)一直在向选民兜售各自的美国经济振兴计划。共和党总统候选人特朗普的提议带着惯有的认知失调。他宣称自己是财政刺激政策的拥趸,但他的新成立的经济顾问委员会却由似乎是最后幸存的“供给派”组成。供给派是里根时代“涓滴理论”的倡导者。希拉里的计划更具有思想上的连贯性:这位民主党总统候选人承诺大举投资于基础设施、制造业和清洁能源,希望创造薪资更高的就业机会。但两位候选人的方案都没有充分触及当前劳动力市场上最重要的趋势——“零工经济”(gig economy)。

A spate of research by everyone from high-profile academics to McKinsey consultants points to the idea that in the next 10-20 years, the number of people working as freelancers, independent contractors or for multiple employers will increase dramatically. In the US, 35 per cent of workers are working in this way. So the sharing economy, made up of both lower-level gig workers and higher-end professionals with “portfolio” careers, is the future. The question is whether it will be an economy that creates more sustainable, robust growth.

从知名学者到麦肯锡(McKinsey)的咨询师们,所有人进行的一系列研究表明,在未来10至20年,自由职业者、独立承包人或者为多个雇主工作的人的数量将会显著增加。在美国,35%的劳动者正在以这种方式工作。因此,共享经济——由低技能的零工劳动者和有着“组合”职业的更高端专业人士组成——代表着未来发展方向。问题在于,这种经济是否会创造更加可持续、更强劲的增长。

There are two paths this new economy might take. One, more widely covered, is Darwinian. People at all ends of the socio-economic spectrum become Uberised, as both blue- and white-collar jobs are handed out piecemeal to the lowest bidder. Already, eastern European designers and Indian radiologists are undercutting their full-time peers in more developed countries this way. The labour markets starts to resemble, as Adair Turner, chairman of the New York-based Institute for New Economic Thinking once put it to me, “a feudal marketplace in which the lord shows up each day and says, ‘I’ll take you, and you, and you’.” The labour share of the pie, which has been shrinking across the developed world for the past four decades, continues to decrease. Stagnant growth and polarised politics continue.

这种新经济有两条路可走。一条是被较为广泛提及的达尔文主义。各个社会经济阶层的人们走向“优步化”,蓝领和白领工作全都被分散交给报价最低的劳动者。东欧的设计师和印度的放射师已经在采用这种方式,使得服务价格低于较发达国家中的全职同行们。劳动力市场开始变得就像一个封建社会的市场,就像纽约新经济思维研究所(Institute for New Economic Thinking)所长阿戴尔•特纳(Adair Turner)曾经和我说的那样:“领主每天出现在封建社会的市场中,说道:‘我将带走你、你,还有你’。”劳动者所分到的蛋糕——过去四十年里在整个发达世界经济中一直在缩减——继续缩减。增长停滞和两极分化的政治持续。

But there is another possibility. Platform technologies used by companies such as Uber could, with a few crucial tweaks, enable a return to a more be-nign, pre-industrial form of capitalism.

但还有一种可能性。经过一些关键的调整,优步(Uber)等公司使用的平台技术能够使我们回归到工业时代前的那种更为温和的资本主义。

As Arun Sundararajan, a New York University academic, notes in his new book, The Sharing Economy, the percentage of self-employed workers in 1900 in the US was three times as high as it is today. Rather than working for huge corporations that take the majority of the pie — corporate profit share has reached record levels in the past couple of years — the farmers, artisans and small merchants that made up the majority of the 19th-century labour force were self-employed, selling goods and labour directly into the marketplace to myriad customers. The gig economy, it turns out, is not new; peer to peer commerce has just reinvigorated an old model.

正如纽约大学(New York University)学者阿伦•孙达拉贾(Arun Sundararajan)在其新书《共享经济》(The Sharing Economy)中指出的那样,1900年,美国自我雇佣工人的比例是如今的3倍。在19世纪劳动力大军中占据绝大多数比例的农民、工匠和小商贩是自我雇佣的,直接进入市场向各种各样的客户出售商品和劳动力,而不是为分走绝大部分蛋糕的大企业工作——企业利润在近几年达到了创纪录的水平。事实证明,零工经济并非新生事物;个人对个人(P2P)商务只是让一种旧模式焕发了生机。

The trick for the next US president will be to craft policies that ensure the 21st-century sharing economy is more conducive to enterprise than to feudalism. That will include making sure labour can grab a larger chunk of the profit. Policymakers might take a lesson from existing co-operatives, in which workers already own the means of production. This type of business, with roots in the 19th century, is widespread in the US agricultural industry. Big brands such as Ocean Spray, Welch’s, Land O’Lakes, Sunkist are owned by individual farmers who can use economies of scale to secure prices above market average for their products.

对于下任美国总统来说,关键将是设计政策,确保21世纪的共享经济更有利于企业而非封建主义。这将包括确保劳动力可以获得更大份额的利润。政策制定者可以向现有的合作社学习经验——在这些合作社,劳动者占有生产资料。目前,这种源于19世纪的企业普遍存在于美国农业领域。Ocean Spray、Welch’s、Land O’Lakes和Sunkist等大品牌均由农民所有,这些农民可以利用规模经济,确保自己的产品价格高于市场平均水平。

Digital platforms make it possible to spread this model to fast-growing hands on sectors such as healthcare and education. In the US, the Bronx-based Cooperative Home Care Associates employs 2,000 workers in jobs with above-average wages and more favourable scheduling standards and benefits. Swift, a new Uber-like taxi app, is run and owned by drivers themselves. New York recently launched a $2m fund to help develop digital co-operatives among companies such as print shops, neighbourhood cafés and artisan makers of high-end goods.

数字平台让这种模式有可能推广至医疗、教育等领域快速增长的人手。在美国,总部位于纽约布朗克斯(Bronx)的合作家庭护理协会(Cooperative Home Care Associates)雇佣了2000人,这些人有高于平均水平的工资以及更为有利的日程标准和福利。一个与优步类似的叫车应用Swift由司机自己运营和所有。纽约最近发行了一只200万美元的基金,旨在帮助印刷店、社区咖啡馆和高端商品手工店等公司开发数字合作机构。

Increasing the scale of such a model requires state intervention. Current laws mean it is much easier for businesses to register as limited liability companies than as co-ops, for example. Labour laws, which assume there is an imbalance between individuals and large institutions, will need to be rethought, as will regulation. Already, there have been wrangles over legal compensation for things that go wrong in, for example, an Airbnb, and how that differs from a similar situation in a hotel. Portable benefits, an idea supported by many tech titans, would help provide a basic safety net for workers in the US sharing economy, allowing them to be more entrepreneurial. This is vital at a time when start-ups per head have been falling for at least four decades.

扩大此类模式的规模需要政府干预。例如,从现行法律可以看出,企业注册为有限责任公司比注册为合作社容易得多。我们需要反思假定个人与大企业实力不对等的劳动法,监管也是如此。人们已经围绕Airbnb之类平台出错的法律赔偿以及如何将之与酒店类似情况区分开产生了争议。“便携式福利”——许多科技界巨头支持这一想法——将为美国共享经济的劳动者提供基本的社会保障,使得他们更具创业精神。在人均初创企业数量至少40年来一直在下降的情况下,这一点至关重要。

重点单词   查看全部解释    
intellectual [.intil'ektʃuəl]

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n. 知识份子,凭理智做事者
adj. 智力的

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regulation [.regju'leiʃən]

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n. 规则,规章,管理
adj. 规定的,官方

 
promising ['prɔmisiŋ]

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adj. 有希望的,有前途的

 
spate [speit]

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n. 泛滥,洪水,突然的一阵

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fiscal ['fiskəl]

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adj. 财政的,国库的

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compensation [.kɔmpen'seiʃən]

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n. 补偿,赔偿; 赔偿金,物

 
spectrum ['spektrəm]

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n. 光谱,范围,系列

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commerce ['kɔmə:s]

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n. 商业,贸易

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platform ['plætfɔ:m]

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n. 平台,站台,月台,讲台,(政党的)政纲

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spread [spred]

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v. 伸展,展开,传播,散布,铺开,涂撒
n.

 

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