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As part of China’s anti-corruption drive, the free liquor and even bottled water disappeared from the hotels housing guests for the 19th Party Congress, which concluded last week. But despite the austere note on which the core leadership insisted, there was a congratulatory air about the proceedings.
作为中国反腐运动的一部分，在上周闭幕的中共第19次全国代表大会（十九大）期间，免费的白酒甚至瓶装水都从与会者下榻的酒店里消失了。但是，尽管中共核心领导层保持艰苦朴素的基调，外界却对十九大感到欢欣鼓舞。
The reflationary trade may be moribund in the US, but across the Pacific it is alive and well. Consider one small indication noted by Chris Wood, strategist at CLSA: ICBC, the largest bank in China and in the world, is trading above book value in relatively cynical Hong Kong for the first time in more than two years. “The improvement in Chinese banks’ reported asset quality can be seen in the continuing rally in Chinese bank stocks, where a re-rating is now taking place,” he notes.
美国的通货再膨胀交易或许行将灭亡，但在整个太平洋地区，这种交易依然活跃。想一想里昂证券(CLSA)策略师克里斯?伍德(Chris Wood)指出的一个小迹象：在相对持怀疑态度的香港市场，中国乃至世界最大银行中国工商银行(ICBC)的股价2年多来首次超过账面价值。“中资银行报告的资产质量的改善，体现在中资银行股的持续上扬中，这些银行股正得到重新评级，”他指出。
Banks are generally a proxy for wider economic trends. In this case, the recovery of the share prices of ICBC and its peers reflects two benign developments.
银行通常是整体经济趋势的晴雨表。在这种情况下，中国工商银行及其他中资银行的股价复苏，反映出两个良性发展。
For one thing, the rate of growth of debt — widely seen by bearish hedge fund managers as one day triggering a systemic financial crisis — has slowed. Indeed, the second quarter was the first since 2011 in which debt actually declined, according to Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.
一方面，债务增长速度放缓了，此前悲观的对冲基金公司广泛认为债务增长总有一天会引发系统性金融危机。的确，摩根大通(JPMorgan)驻香港首席中国经济学家朱海斌表示，今年第二季度是2011年以来债务首次实际发生下降。
Although the drop in total debt (including the shadow banks) was “marginal”, as Mr Zhu notes, the composition of that debt has also shifted. The share of corporate lending in the total is down, while that of households is increasing. That, in turn, means the long-promised rebalancing of the economy from investment to consumption is gaining momentum.
尽管总债务（包括影子银行）的下降“微不足道”，但朱海斌指出，债务的构成发生了变化。企业贷款在总债务中的比例下降，而家庭贷款的比例正在上升。这进而意味着，长期许诺的经济从投资转向消费的再平衡正在形成势头。
The banks are double beneficiaries of this because loans to households, especially for mortgages, are less likely to become problem assets. Moreover, banks can also charge more to consumers, thereby improving their margins.
银行是这一变化的双重受益者，因为对家庭发放的贷款，尤其是抵押贷款，成为问题资产的可能性更低。此外，银行还可以向消费者收取更多费用，从而提高自身的利润率。
Financial stocks make up nearly 24 per cent of the MSCI China index, which has been a star performer year to date. Given that these positive trends in the quality of banks’ balance sheets are still in their early days, not only are the banks far less likely to bring down the system, they may even be as highly regarded by investors as they are by the leadership.
金融股占MSCI中国指数(MSCI China index)近24%，这类股票今年迄今的表现十分出色。考虑到有关银行资产负债表质量的积极趋势仍处于早期阶段，银行不仅不太可能引发系统性问题，还可能在投资者那里得到它们在领导层已经得到的高度重视。
