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内部分歧重重,美贸易代表团要如何和中国谈判?

来源:可可英语 编辑:alice   可可英语APP下载 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet

WASHINGTON — Top Trump administration officials are arriving in China this week armed with tough talk about Beijing’s need to change its trade practices. But within the United States delegation there is little consensus about what concessions America should try to extract — or the best approach to getting the Chinese to agree.

华盛顿——本周抵达中国的特朗普政府高层官员表达了北京需改变贸易做法的强硬态度。但是对于美国应该试图获取什么样的让步,或者说怎样做才能使中国就范,代表团内部没有多少共识。
Instead of a single point person with a clear set of demands, the White House is sending six trade and economic officials with differing ideas on how to approach China and who are deeply divided over the desirability of a trade war. Some advocate goals that do not align with what the American business community wants or what China is prepared to offer, raising questions about how productive a dialogue will be, and whether talks can prevent the world’s two largest economies from tipping into a deeper conflict.
白宫没有派出一位具有特定观点和一系列明确要求的人,而是派出六名贸易与经济官员,在如何处理中国问题方面,他们的观点各不相同,在贸易战是否可取这个问题上也有很大分歧。一些人提倡的目标与美国企业界想要达成的目标或中国准备提供的东西并不一致,这令人们怀疑对话将产生多大成效,以及谈判能否阻止全球两个最大经济体陷入更深层次的冲突。
What unites the group is a view that China’s trade practices are unacceptable and that Washington will now call the shots.
代表团成员都能认同的是:中国的贸易行为是不可接受的,华盛顿现在要掌握主动。
“The discussions will take place in Beijing, the decisions will take place in Washington,” said Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser and longtime China critic who is among those traveling to Beijing.
“讨论会在北京进行,而决定将在华盛顿做出,”高级贸易顾问,长期批评中国的彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)说,他是前往北京的代表之一。
China experts have said the trip is very likely to be more of a listening session, in which administration officials will wait to hear what the Chinese will offer. But without agreement or a clear list of goals from the American side, the Chinese may try to mollify officials by meeting only the most modest of their trade demands. That could include agreeing to buy additional American products to lower the trade surplus with the United States, reviving old economic dialogues between the countries, or cracking open some domestic markets to foreign competition — but only those where Chinese companies are already securely dominant.
中国问题专家表示,此次出访很可能更倾向于倾听,政府官员会让中方来说它能够提供什么。但是,如果没有协议或美方明确的目标清单,中国人可能会试图通过满足最温和的贸易要求来安抚这些官员。其中可能包括同意购买额外的美国产品,以降低对美国的贸易顺差;恢复两国之间旧有的经济对话;或是迅速开放一些国内市场,迎接外国竞争——但只开放那些中国企业已经稳固占据主导地位的市场。
In general, China appears set to take a hard line. Chinese officials said they would not agree to a $100 billion reduction in the trade deficit that the Trump administration has demanded. And they do not plan to engage on ambitious United States demands to curb an industrial plan known as Made in China 2025.
总的来说,中国似乎会采取强硬立场。中国官员表示,他们不会同意特朗普政府要求的贸易赤字减少1000亿美元。而美国为遏制名为《中国制造2025》的工业计划而提出的大范围要求,他们也不打算讨论。
The delegation also includes Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, who, like Mr. Navarro, embraces a more combative approach to dealing with China than other advisers on the trip. Mr. Navarro and Mr. Lighthizer have been focused on China’s trade practices for decades, and insist the country must make more dramatic changes to even the playing field for American companies. They also appear willing to follow through with the tariffs President Trump has threatened, despite the pain it could inflict on many American businesses and workers, if they view it as necessary to increase their leverage with the Chinese.
代表团中还包括美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer),他和纳瓦罗一样,对中国采取比其他代表团顾问更好斗的立场。几十年来,纳瓦罗和莱特希泽一直关注中国的贸易做法,并且坚持认为中国必须做出更大改变,为美国公司提供公平的竞争环境。他们似乎也愿意执行特朗普总统所威胁的关税,如果他们认定关税是对中国人加压的必要手段,那么就算给许多美国企业和工人带来痛苦也在所不惜。
Other members of the delegation, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow, who heads the National Economic Council, appear more inclined to strike deals that would accomplish the president’s goal of reducing the gap between what America imports from China and what it sells to the country, and thus head off the risk of an escalating trade war. Also going on the trip are Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, who has previously seemed receptive to striking deals; Everett Eissenstat, an experienced trade adviser; and Terry Branstad, the United States ambassador to China.
代表团的其他成员还包括财政部长史蒂文·努钦(Steven Mnuchin)和国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)主席拉里·库德洛(Larry Kudlow),他们似乎更倾向于达成协议,实现总统的目标——缩小美中进出口贸易的差距,从而避免贸易战的升级。代表团中还有商务部长威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross),此前他似乎更倾向于达成协议;此外还有经验丰富的贸易顾问埃弗雷特·伊森史塔(Everett Eissenstat);以及美国驻华大使特里·布兰斯塔德(Terry Branstad)。
Yukon Huang, a China scholar at the Carnegie Institute, called the group an “ideologically hybrid team” with competing views about what is really plaguing the U.S.-China relationship.
卡内基研究院(Carnegie Institute)的中国问题学者黄育川(Yukon Huang)说这群人是一个“意识形态混杂的团队”,对于困扰美中关系的真正问题有着截然不同的观点。
“It’s a mixture between two camps: one focused on trade issues, one focused on technology wars,” Mr. Huang said. “The reason it is such, and we don’t have a game plan, is the issues aren’t well understood.”
“这是两个阵营的混合体:一个关注贸易问题,一个关注技术战争,”黄育川说。“之所以会这样,并且缺乏整体的策略,是因为问题没有得到很好的理解。”
Among the concerns are a range of practices, including barriers to entry, subsidies and regulations that pressure American companies to hand over sensitive trade secrets, which China uses to make national champions of its homegrown firms. These tactics have enabled the Chinese to dominate global industries like steel, aluminum and solar panels, and American trade advisers say they are currently tipping the playing field for industries of the future, including semiconductors, robotics, cloud computing, electric vehicles and biotechnology.
他们关切的事项包括中国的一系列做法,比如设置准入门槛;提供补贴;制订规章,迫使美国企业交出敏感的商业机密,中国再利用这些机密打造本土领军企业。这些策略帮助中国主导了钢铁、铝和太阳能电池板等全球性产业。美国的贸易顾问们表示,他们目前正在颠覆半导体、机器人、云计算、电动汽车和生物技术等未来产业的竞争环境。
Speaking at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington on Tuesday, Mr. Lighthizer said that the United States had nearly a third of the world’s high-tech business, followed by China, and that China’s trade practices were imperiling the economic future of the United States.
莱特希泽周二在华盛顿的美国商会(U.S. Chamber of Commerce)发表讲话时表示,美国拥有全球近三分之一的高科技企业,中国名列第二,中国的贸易行为正在危及美国的经济未来。
“I’m always hoping but not always hopeful,” Mr. Lighthizer said about the prospect of success from the talks.
“我一直在希望,但并不总是满怀希望,”莱特希泽在谈到谈判是否会取得成功时表示。
Many American industry leaders support Mr. Lighthizer’s efforts to expand access to Chinese sectors that are restricted to American companies and protect American intellectual property from theft and coercion — longstanding complaints of American business leaders about China’s tactics. But they are wary of the administration’s approach to resolving longstanding problems.
美国的很多行业领袖都支持莱特希泽在扩大中国行业准入方面的努力(那些行业原本限制美国企业进入),以及保护美国的知识产权免受盗窃和胁迫。长期以来,美国的商界领袖一直在抱怨中国的这些策略。但他们对特朗普政府解决这些老问题的方式感到担忧。
Some business leaders fear that the Trump administration may simply accept Chinese offers to lower the trade surplus by buying more American goods and open up segments of the economy that are already mature, like financial services, electronic payments or the auto sector. On the other hand, they worry about the economic damage from a trade war if the anti-China wing of the delegation wins the internal debate and follows through with its threats.
一些商界领袖担心,特朗普政府可能会接受中国的提议,那就是,通过购买更多的美国商品减少贸易顺差,开放已经成熟的经济领域,比如金融服务、电子支付或汽车行业。另一方面,他们担心,如果代表团中的反华势力赢得了内部辩论,将威胁付诸实施,那么会导致贸易战,造成经济损失。
Thomas J. Donohue, the president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said Tuesday that there were “serious, growing and legitimate challenges” about Chinese practices, but he also cautioned against the effect of a tit-for-tat tariff war.
美国商会会长托马斯·J·多诺霍(Thomas J. Donohue)周二表示,对于中国的做法存在“严重的、日益增强的、合情合理的挑战”,但他也警告,针锋相对的关税战会带来不利后果。
“We are deeply concerned that the proposed tariffs list and escalating tariff threats from the administration will not effectively advance our shared goal of changing these harmful Chinese practices,” he said.
“我们深感关切的是,政府提出的关税清单和不断升级的关税威胁,无法有效推进我们改变中国这些有害做法的共同目标,”他说。
Analysts continue to warn of potential risks to economic growth in the United States if administration officials cannot negotiate a quick resolution with the Chinese, and the tariffs go into effect. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note this week that new investment restrictions on China, which the administration plans to outline soon, could also rattle investors.
分析人士继续警告,如果美国政府官员不能与中国协商达成快速解决方案,导致关税生效,那么可能会给美国的经济增长带来潜在风险。高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)的分析师本周在一份研究报告中表示,政府计划很快出台的对中国的新投资限制,也令投资者感到不安。
“Some additional market-disruptive policy moves regarding U.S.-China trade seem likely,” Goldman’s Alec Phillips wrote in the research note, which downplayed the odds of success in this week’s talks. “We believe a substantial breakthrough at this meeting is unlikely as the issues the U.S. has raised — intellectual property policies, technology transfer, and the ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy, in particular — are not the type of technical trade issues that can be resolved quickly.”
“在美中贸易方面,似乎有可能出现更多破坏市场的政策举措,”高盛的亚历克·菲利普斯(Alec Phillips)在这份研究报告中写道。这份报告认为本周谈判成功的几率不高。“我们认为,此次会议不太可能取得实质性突破,因为美国提出的问题——知识产权政策、技术转让,尤其是《中国制造2025》战略——不是那种能够迅速解决的技术性贸易问题。”
The National Association of Manufacturers, one of the most influential business lobbying groups in Washington, has been pressing Mr. Trump and his economic team to open negotiations with the Chinese on a free-trade agreement, an ambitious move that many trade experts doubt would bear fruit, given the past struggles of American negotiators who have tried to secure far more limited agreements with China.
华盛顿最具影响力的商业游说团体全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers)一直在敦促特朗普和他的经济团队与中国就自由贸易协定展开谈判。很多贸易专家认为,这个雄心勃勃的举措不会取得成果,因为美国谈判者曾经试图与中国达成更有限的协议,但遇到了重重困难。
Jay Timmons, the president of the manufacturers’ group, urged Mr. Trump in a letter this year to “consider pursuing a truly modern, innovative and comprehensive bilateral trade agreement with China that wholly restructures our economic relationship.” The group’s vice president for international economic affairs, Linda Menghetti Dempsey, told a congressional subcommittee in April that such an effort would be “at once both a radical idea and, in our estimation, the most pragmatic and effective way forward” on trade with China.
该制造商团体的主席杰伊·蒂蒙斯(Jay Timmons)在今年的一封信中,敦促特朗普“考虑与中国达成一项真正现代、创新和全面的双边贸易协定,彻底重建两国的经济关系”。该团体负责国际经济事务的副主席琳达·门盖蒂·登普西(Linda Menghetti Dempsey)4月对一个国会小组委员会表示,这样的努力“是一个激进的想法,但在我们看来,它也是”在与中国做生意方面“最务实、最有效的方式”。

内部分歧重重,美贸易代表团要如何和中国谈判?.jpg

The Obama administration attempted to negotiate a more limited agreement with China, a bilateral investment treaty, but could not finalize the deal before Mr. Trump took office. His team has not yet revived the talks.

奥巴马政府曾经试图与中国达成更有限的协议——一项双边投资协定——但未能在特朗普上台之前敲定。他的团队还没有恢复谈判。
Manufacturers have discussed the plan directly with Mr. Kudlow and with Vice President Mike Pence. Proponents say they believe the idea could appeal to Mr. Trump’s preference for bilateral trade agreements and his confidence in his negotiation skills.
制造商们与库德洛及副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)直接讨论过该计划。支持者们表示,他们认为,这个想法可能符合特朗普对双边贸易协定的偏爱以及他对自己谈判技巧的信心。
However, White House officials have given no public indication that they are considering such a negotiation. Mr. Lighthizer, Mr. Navarro and other proponents of a harder line against China have argued that the Chinese tend to use such dialogues as a delaying tactic, and that past trade negotiations with them have not been productive.
不过,白宫官员没有公开表示他们正在考虑这样的谈判。莱特希泽和纳瓦罗等主张对中国采取强硬措施的人士认为,中国往往将此类对话用作拖延战术,过去与中国的贸易谈判一直没有成效。

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