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Capital is flowing out of China at a record pace, sparking fears about financial stability and complicating efforts by the central bank to support a slowing economy with lower interest rates.
中国正出现规模创纪录的资金外流现象，引发了人们对中国金融稳定性的担心，也令中国央行(PBoC)以降息提振放缓经济的努力面临更复杂的局面。
China ran a balance of payments deficit of $80bn in the first three months of the year, the largest quarterly net outflow on record, according to official data.
根据中国官方发布的数据，今年头三个月，中国国际收支逆差达800亿美元，是有记录以来最大规模的季度净流出量。
The outflows are all the more striking because China’s trade surplus remained strong over the period. As falling commodity prices slashed the country’s import bill, it recorded a $79bn current-account surplus — the largest in nearly five years.
考虑到中国在同一时期内的贸易顺差还很高，这一资金外流的规模就愈发令人吃惊了。在不断下跌的大宗商品价格令中国进口额大大缩水之际，中国录得790亿美元的经常项目顺差，是近五年来的最大顺差。
But this was overwhelmed by outflows on the capital and financial accounts worth a record $159bn. The lure of China's surging stock market also failed to counter the outflow trend.
然而，这一数字却被资本和金融项目的外流资金超过，后者价值达到创纪录的1590亿美元。而中国股市暴涨带来的诱惑，也未能逆转资金外流的趋势。
Although the outflows signal investor concern about China's economy, which grew at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter, a rising US dollar and declining Chinese interest rates also helped draw funds out of the country.
外流资金或反映了投资者对中国经济的担忧：今年第一季度，中国出现了六年来的最慢经济增长速度。不过，不断升值的美元及不断降低的中国利率，也在推动资金流出中国。
"All things considered, [Beijing] would rather not have confidence-sensitive capital going out," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research for ING Financial Markets in Singapore.
荷兰国际集团金融市场(ING Financial Markets)驻新加坡亚洲研究主管蒂姆•康顿(Tim Condon)表示：“考虑到所有因素，（中国政府）更希望资金不要外流，因为资金外流可能打击市场信心。”
By some measures, outflows have been continuing for more than a year. The central bank’s holdings of foreign assets have dropped for seven consecutive quarters — the longest run of declines on record.
以某些标准而言，中国资金外流的现象已持续了一年以上。中国央行持有的外汇资产已连续第7个季度减少——这是有记录以来持续时间最长的一次。
Still, economists say the scale of outflows does not yet threaten the stability of the financial system. That first-quarter outflows set a record largely reflects the tight control Beijing has long maintained over cross-border capital flows.
不过，经济学家表示，中国资金外流的规模仍未威胁到金融体系的稳定性。第一季度外流资金创下纪录，在很大程度上表明，中国政府长期维持着对跨境资金流动的严格控制。
And even if the $80bn quarterly outflow were maintained for the entire year — an unlikely scenario — it would still represent only 3 per cent of 2014 gross domestic product and 9 per cent of foreign exchange reserves. That explains why Chinese officials do not appear overly concerned.
而且，就算800亿美元的季度资金外流规模保持一整年（这种情况不太可能出现），也只相当于中国2014年国内生产总值(GDP)的3%、中国外汇储备的9%。这一点足以解释为何中国官方似乎对这个问题并不过分担忧。
“Recent capital outflows represent an adjustment that is within expectations. One can’t equate them with illegal and secret capital flight,” Guan Tao, head of the balance of payments department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said last month.
上个月，中国国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)国际收支司司长管涛曾表示：“今年一季度外汇呈现外流趋势，但是当前的资本流出是意料之中的有序调整，并非违法、违规的资本外逃。”
According to analysts, it is also important to distinguish between outflows of so-called “hot money” — purely financial investments — and foreign direct investment flows linked to real economic activity, which the government is actively encouraging.
分析师们表示，区分所谓“热钱”外流和对外直接投资(FDI)也十分重要。前者是纯粹的金融投资，后者则与实体经济的活动有关，而实体经济活动是中国政府积极鼓励的。
“China has a huge manufacturing sector and it’s looking for places to do business cheaper. That’s cold money — there are goods and services associated with it,” said Mr Condon.
康顿表示：“中国拥有规模巨大的制造业部门，目前正在寻找能够降低业务成本的地区。由此而出现的资金流动是‘冷钱’——它们是与商品和服务相联系的。”
Aided by the government’s “going out” policy encouraging overseas investment by Chinese companies, China ran an FDI deficit of $33m in 2014, the first full-year FDI deficit since 2004, according to the foreign exchange regulator.
中国政府正在推行鼓励中国企业海外投资的“走出去”政策。根据中国国家外汇管理局的数据，在该政策的帮助下，2014年中国FDI赤字为3300万美元，这是FDI自2004年以来首次出现全年赤字。
Beyond FDI, economists say even some purely financial flows should be considered a healthy move by Chinese savers to diversify into foreign assets, rather than a sign of panic about China's slowing economy.
经济学家还表示，除了FDI以外，甚至部分纯粹的金融性流动也应被视为健康的资金流动，它们是中国储户借外国资产实现资产多元化配置而产生的流动，不是害怕中国经济放缓的表现。
They also reflect recent reforms to loosen capital controls and cautiously encourage financial outflows through initiatives such as the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which allows mainland Chinese to invest in foreign equities.
此外，资金外流的原因还包括中国近期的金融改革。一方面，中国放宽了对资本的管制。另一方面，中国正小心地通过“沪港通”等机制鼓励金融流动。“沪港通”机制允许中国内地投资者投资外国股市。
Nevertheless, capital outflows are complicating efforts by the People’s Bank of China to support the economy through monetary easing. For the past decade, central bank purchases of foreign exchange inflows were the main source of base money creation in China's banking system. Now, with outflows threatening to shrink the money supply, the central bank is turning to new mechanisms to expand it.
不过，资金外流令中国央行通过货币宽松政策提振经济的努力复杂化。过去十年，央行购入流入外汇，是中国银行体系创造基础货币的主要来源。如今，由于资金外流可能会导致货币供应量缩水，中国央行正转向新的办法扩大货币供应量。
The most important of these is cuts to banks’ required reserve ratio. The PBoC once used RRR rises to restrain excess money growth by forcing commercial banks to keep a chunk of newly created base money on reserve at the central bank, where it is unavailable for lending. Now the PBoC is doing the opposite: cutting the RRR to offset the loss of liquidity caused by capital outflows.
这些新的办法中，最重要的方式是降低银行存款准备金率。中国央行曾通过提高存款准备金率，迫使商业银行将部分新创造的基础货币留在央行，作为无法用于放贷的储备金，从而实现限制货币过度增长的目的。如今，中国央行正在采取相反的操作方法：降低存款准备金率，以弥补资金外流导致的流动性丧失。
Yet even after RRR cuts totalling 1.5 percentage points this year, the ratio for big banks, at 18.5 per cent, remains far higher than in any other major economy. Most economists believe that for the PBoC to meet its broad M2 money growth target of 12 per cent, further RRR cuts will be necessary.
不过，虽然今年中国总计将存款准备金率降低了1.5个百分点，中国大型银行的存款准备金率依然在18.5%，远高于其他主要经济体。多数经济学家相信，中国央行要想实现12%的广义货币增长目标，必须采取进一步降准措施。
“From the start of this year, capital inflows have been negative. We believe the key factor now restricting effective monetary easing is that the required reserve ratio remains at a high level,” said Liu Liu, macroeconomic analyst at China International Capital Corp.
中金公司(China International Capital Corp)宏观经济分析师刘鎏表示：“年初至今外汇流入为负，我们认为，当前制约货币政策有效放松的关键因素是存款准备金率仍处于高位，从而压低了货币乘数。”
In addition to RRR cuts, the central bank has slashed benchmark rates three times since November. But lower rates could exacerbate capital flight by making Chinese assets less attractive, especially in comparison to the US, where the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates this year.
除了降低存款准备金率，自去年11月以来，中国央行还三次大幅降低基准利率。不过，降息可能会降低中国资产的吸引力——尤其是相对美国资产的吸引力，从而加剧资金外逃。与中国形成对照的是，美国美联储(Fed)预计将于今年提升利率。
